29.12.25 – 04.01.26
Clashes during an Alawite civilian protests
On December 28, anti-government Alawite fighters launched attacks on government security forces in coastal Syria during an Alawite demonstration. The protest was organized as a response to an attack by the Salafi-jihadi group Saraya Ansar al Sunnah on an Alawite mosque in Homs City. The demonstration demanded federal governance, enhanced state protection for Alawites, an end to sectarian violence, and the release of former detainees arrested after the Assad regime’s collapse in December 2024. The situation escalated when pro-government counter-protestors and government forces intervened. Amid the chaos, anti-government Alawite fighters, hidden among the protesters, opened fire and threw grenades on General Security Service (GSS) forces resulting in one dead and two wounded in the ranks of the GSS. In response, the Syrian Ministry of Defense (MoD) deployed armored units and military police to Latakia and Tartous.
The attackers may have been Alawite insurgents deliberately attempting to provoke a government response. Militants from both the Men of Light (Saraya al Jawad, an Assadist insurgent group) and the Coastal Shield Brigade (which also has significant ties to the Assad regime) attacked security forces during civilian protests in Latakia City.
The presence of Assadist slogans at the demonstrations, along with the nature of the attacks, suggests a degree of support among some protesters for these Alawite insurgent factions and could indicate a nascent support for an insurgent movement aligned with Assadist ideals. The immediate threat posed of these Assadist groups to the Syrian government is currently low, given their limited scale, effectiveness, and organizational structure. However, if given the necessary time and space to recruit and organize, these networks could expand significantly.
Abdullah Ocalan statement on the March 10 agreement
In a statement released on December 30, Abdullah Öcalan claimed that the agreement aims to establish a “democratic political model.” He emphasized that this model would facilitate “democratic integration” into the “central structure,” referring to the SDF’s potential integration within the broader Syrian state.
An Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) official interpreted the term “democratic integration” to mean the continuation of the current “administrative and cognitive situation” in northern and eastern Syria. This interpretation aligns with the vision of a federalized Syria defended by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
AANES and Syrian government representatives meeting
Mazloum Abdi was expected to travel to Damascus on December 29 to discuss or finalize this military integration agreement; however, his visit was postponed due to “logistical and technical arrangements.” The postponement of Mazloum Abdi’s visit coincides with clashes that erupted in Aleppo between the Asayish and the Ministry of Defense (MoD) forces. In a statement, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), emphasized on December 31 that implementing the March 10 Agreement with the Syrian government is a “political priority,” advocating for the drafting of a new constitution that incorporates federalism, a demand the SDF has consistently maintained since the agreement’s signing.
The AANES negotiating team spokerperson indicated on December 30 that AANES and representatives from the Syrian government may meet in the next two weeks to discuss the integration of SDF into the Syrian state.
Continuous developments:
– On December 24 and 25, the Jordanian military carried out airstrikes targeting Captagon production sites, arms caches, and smuggler positions in Suweida Province. The Jordanian military also struck seven sites belonging to the Suweida National Guard’s control. The Suweida National Guard denied that Jordanian airstrikes hit its facilities and accused Bedouins of conducting the cross-border Captagon smuggling.
– On December 30, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that US and partner forces have killed at least seven ISIS fighters and captured about 18 others during operations in Syria between December 20 and 29.
– On December 31, Syrian security forces prevented a suicide vest attack that sought to target New Year’s celebrations in Aleppo City. The attacker likely intended to target the nearby Armenian Church of Forty Martyrs.