What follows is a compilation of updates from December 2024 shared by internationalist anarchists working from NES:
Updates 24-12-24
# NES
– After the SDF surprise counter attack in Manbij countryside, partly possible due to the rainy weather where turkish drones can’t operate well, SDF is reorganizing new defense lines. Ferhat Shami, media responsible of SDF said:
“Our forces confronted an attack by SNA this morning on the village of “Qabr Imo” east of Manbij city, where violent clashes are currently taking place.
In the area of Qozak Bridge, our forces blew up a SNA vehicle.
In the axis of Tishrin Dam, the forces of the MMC thwarted an attack by the mercenaries on the villages of Abu “Qalqal” district, where dozens of mercenaries were killed and wounded. The forces also took control of two tanks, an artillery weapon with its ammunition, in addition to destroying some military vehicles belonging to the mercenaries. The clashes in those areas are ongoing.”
– White Helmet Units proclaimed their arrival in Manbij. White Helmets are a humanitarian and rescue organisation that opperated from Turkey and worked in Syrian opposition controlled areas. It was founded in 2014 by James Le Mesurier, a british ex-officer who died in Istanbul in 2019.
– In Manbij city a car bomb exploded in front of the recruitment office of the Turkish led SNA. Dead and wounded SNA fighters confirmed. No one has claimed such action yet.
– US army is patrolling in Kobane city, aiming to divert the turkish agressions.
– Several villages are constantly under mortar and drone attacks in the M4 front lines, both in Ain Issa and in Til Temir areas. 2 SDF fighters were injured today on a drone strike in Um al-Keif, less than 20km away from Til Temir.
# Syria
– Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa anounced an agreement with rebel faction leaders to dissolve all groups and consolidate them under the Defence Ministry, according to a statement from the new Syrian general administration.
– Turkeish State claims that more than 25,000 Syrians have returned home from Turkey since Assad was overthrown. Turkey has been the main destination for Syrians who fleed the war, with estimations of 3 million people, followed by Germany and then Lebanon with almost 1 million each of them. Europe sheltered in total less than 2 milions.
# Forgein policy
– UN Envoy warns of “dramatic consequences” for Syria if tensions in the north remain unresolved.
– A powerful blast happen in an ammunitions and explosives plant in northwest Turkey, with at least 12 dead an a dozen more injured. The cause was not known, some turkish authorities suggested sabotage and an investigation is ongoing.
# International Solidarity
– Across the border of Kobane, members of the DEM party are protesting the looming turkish invasion with a sit-in.
– Donations of 300.000€ have reached Heyva Sor. We want to pass on the gratitude of our Heyva Sor friends, who have been working tirelessly to take care of the refugees from Shehba and Aleppo.
– Alexandra Cordebard, Mayor of Paris’s 10th district, honours the Kurdish community, calling for justice and solidarity on the anniversary of the Second Paris Massacre.
# Analysis
HTS is consolidating their power, announcing the disarmament of different factions and their integration into a new national army, under control of the provisional ministery of defense. The provisional goverment is also making concessions with Christian communities, that organized big protests in Damascus after the arson attack on a christmas tree in Hama. It looks a bit weird for us to see their demonstrations, marching and holding corsses above their heads, playing with the hegemony of christianity of western powers as a tool of deterence.
Anyway, it worked. Ahmed al-Sharaa anounced that those who burned the tree were not Syrians, and that there is no place in the new Syria for them. He learned fast to speak the language on western nation-states, using racism and xenophobia to blame the other, to pin any crimes and problems on some external threat, closing ranks under one flag, one nation, one state. But it really seems that those who burned the tree where not Syrians, but Chechens, Islamist veterans that were counted among the elite fighters of the now dispursed al-Nusra front. As Mussolini did one century ago, when he dumped his loyal ‘fascio di combatimento’ paramilitaries once he got to the italian parliament, al-Sharaa is now purging the ranks of HTS to consolidate his power.
But let’s not get lost in history. The important news for us are happening here, next to the Eufrates river. The counter-offensive on Manbij yesterday night had been an important victory, redefining the dynamics of the SNA-SDF ongoing conflict. It proved that SNA stands no chance against SDF without Turkish drones in the sky. It also means that, from now on, every time it rains, SNA mercenaries will be exposed to new SDF counter-offensives.
For those who had been in Rojava for some time, we remember how the Turkish offensives of 2018 and 2019 advanced ruthlessly to fulfil their aims (first Afrin, later Serekaniye and Gire Spi). Back then, they had green light of Russia and US to do as they wanted. Now, with Russia absent and US waiting for Trump to return to the white house, there is a window of opportunity where SDF can use the rainy days to push back. The first counter-offensive in Manbij has been a success, not just on a military level but also on a psycological level, showing that the revolutionary forces are ready to defend their land. This has sent a clear message: Kobane is a red line. If anyone mess with it, the spirit of the resistance that broke the advance of ISIS will once again burst free!
Revolutionary greetings!
———————–
Updates 23-12-24
# NES
– Since November 29th until December 22nd, RIC documented that Turkish/SNA attacks on NES have killed 56 civilians (& injured a further 73), 138 military personnel and 19 Asayish.
## Firat
– After the fierce resistance in Tishrin and Qereqozh, the offensive of SNA has collapsed. SDF took this opportunity to move forward, advancing to Manbij from two axis.
– SDF media delegate Ferhat Shami declared that SDF in now 13km away from Manbij.
SNA groups retreat into the city, with the sky too cloudy for turkish drones to see. [This is already outdated and there seems to be reports claiming for SDF to be in the city of Manbij. You can read here the statement of SDF: https://www.aanes-rep-eu.com/news/updates-from-the-sdf-operation-martir-aziz-arab-to-recover-manbij]
– Manbij residents talk about chaos inside Manbij city, with SNA groups looting, stealing and kidnapping civilians. The residents demand the entry of SDF.
– After a fighter of SNA kidnapped and raped a 7-year-old girl in Manbij countryside on Sunday, many members of the al-Bubna tribe rose up in arms against the occupation. Allegedly, the clashes that followed left dozens of dead SNA fighters. Allegedly, tribe leaders made contact with SDF anouncing the area was freed of mercenaries and that SDF is welcome to return.
## Cizire
– A mass demonstration in support of the YPJ took place in Qamishlo today. All-women YPJ units are taking part in the Tishreen Dam & Qaraqozak Bridge resistance.
– A meeting between SDF command Mazlum Abdi with the leadership of ENKS took place today, attended also by officials of the International coalition (US).
# Syria
– People of Al-Sqailbiyyah are protesting the burning of their Christmas tree by jihadists affiliated with HTS. Marching through the village, they carry a large cross to show that they are Christians and not afraid, shouting ‘Enough is enough!
HTS published a video apologising for the incident.
# Foreign policy
– Iraq has decided to cease providing crude oil to Syria starting from December.
Operations at the Baniyas refinery on Syria’s coast came to a halt after it stopped receiving crude oil shipments from Iran, which has been the primary supplier of Syria’s oil imports.
– Parliament of Catalonia promises to support the DAANES. The Self Administration must be at the table deciding over a new Syria, because without all parties present there will be neither a resolution nor lasting peace.
# Analysis
The SDF seized the opportunity and are making an advance towards Manbij. Since SDF kicked out ISIS in 2016, Manbij had years of democracy and stability. Now we see how the local population refuse to accept the Turkish occupation and the violent fundamentalists groups of SNA. We can see how the self administrations managed to get the vast majority of the people behind the idea of this revolution.
This is a very important victory, not just for the military aspect but also on the political side. Pushing back against the occupation is also a psycological blow for the turkish proxy groups, that find themselves in disarray in front of the advance of SDF. Phones and other devices captured in the advance of SDF are now showing their comunications, where desperate calls for help and scared comunications of fighters running away are being circulated in whatsapp groups. Their dependancy on Turkish military power makes them vulnerable to SDF counter attacks, because they don’t have contingency plans for those situations.
Still, Turkish air superiority is a massive challange for SDF advance. Advances towards Manbij are a big achievment, and we should celebrate it. But the war is not over, Turkish planes can become a nightmare not just for SDF but for all poeples of northern Syria. It is still not clear how much Erdogan will try to play political in his alliance with HTS, or how much he will go full on with military attacks.
But this will be something we will need to evaluate in the future, today let’s ceebrate this amazing victory of SDF!
Revolutionary greetings!
————————————-
Updates 22-12-24
# NES
– Violent clashes continue around the Tishreen dam, with a new offensive of SNA repelled by SDF. SDF also sent reinforcements to the area.
– Turkish occupation bombed the countryside of Kobani and occupied Tal Abyad/Girê Spi, as well as 2 villages west of Tal Tamr. A 12-year old girl and her mother were killed by a turkish drone strike in Kobane countryside.
– In response to the martyrdom of 3 citizens targeted in a car, including the head of the religious council in Tel Brak Sheikh Ahmed Al-Tami, imams and preachers of the Democratic Islam Congress condemned the attack, emphasising “our commitment to carrying the banner of resistance, peace and brotherhood, and our determination to move forward towards achieving these goals.”
# Syria and beyond
– Walid Jumblatt, Druze ex-leader of the progressive Socialist Party of Lebanon, and his son Taymur Jumblatt, met today with Ahmed al-Sharaa (aka al-Julani). In a press statement after the meeting al-Sharaa vowed to end negative interferance from Syria in Lebanon.
– Turkish FM Hakan Fidan met today with Ahmed al-Sharaa,both calling for the lifting of sanctions towards Syria. Al-Sharaa announced a process of disarming and dissolving different armed groups into what will become the new Syrian Army, remarking that this will also include the SDF. Fidan called on the international community to help Syria and for Syrians displaced to return. He also remarked the need for a new constitution in Syria.
– Israeli forces continue to occupy more land in the south, moving up to al-Baath town, near Quneitra.
– US army has sent reinforcements to Syria from Iraq amid Turkish attacks on SDF in NE Syria.
– The women’s village of Jinwar, that sent a letter that adresses Europe:
“The EU is already discussing deporting people back to Syria and is talking about a new beginning in Syria, while people are forced to flee their homes here every day. Turkey attacks everywhere. There is no safe place for people. Sleeping places, food, medicine for the displaced are scarce. It is hardly possible to offer people security.
But the women here are determined. Determined to fight for the children to learn in their own language and grow up with the values of democracy and freedom of women. Determined to counter violence and death by building something beautiful that is full of life. ”
# Analysis
Very fast, al-Julani traded his military-style green shirt for a business-style black suit and a tie, hosting several official meetings this Sunday in the Syrian presidential palace. A new technocrat is born, paving his way to the presidency of Syria and to the corridors of the international Realpolitik.
This creates a very challenging situation for the DAANES, since it is the game that kurdish polititians had been trying to play for the last years. Diplomatic institutions had become an important work for the bodies of the self-administration, moderating the revolutionary narrative to look formal and acceptable to western audiences, aiming to achieve recognition and status for North-East Syria. It worked for a while, creating an illusion that office politics and diplomacy was the right path to follow. But now this illusion is vanishing.
The negotiations of Mazlum Abdi for a ceasefire in Kobane, proposing a demilitarized zone, rightly adressed the concerns that Turkey was putting on the table. This exposed the hipocrasy of AKP, that was just using those conditions as an excuse for their attacks. But with US entering the game, and especially with the fierce resistance of SDF in Tishreen and Qereqozah, the invasion got halted for now. SDF is crushing wave after wave of the mercenaries that Erdogan is sending.
Erdogan has hopes that Trump will side with him when he takes office, but the pro-kurdish positions from some senators of the republican party -with a the bipartisan bill against Erdogan proposed in the US senate- are now bringing doubts about that. Kurdish diplomacy has been playing a pivotal role in the last years, and the revolutionary process also paid a price for it, having to play the role that western powers (mainly US) wanted to see “the kurdish partners” playing.
But the kurdish liberation movement is more than the diplomacy of Rojava, and the resistance in kobane is proof of that. We made it that far because the people of Rojava have always been ready to fight and defend their land. If we want to push for revolutionary transformations, we need to take initiative and go on the offensive.
Revolutionary greeting!
—————–
Updates 21-12-24
# NES
– Turkish backed mercenaries (SNA) launched another fierce attack in the vicinity of the Tishreen Dam this morning, using heavy weaponry, armored vehicles and tanks. SDF forces repelled the attack, eliminating 35 mercenaries and destroying one tank and two armored vehicles.
– An attack by SNA fighters in Hamid, on the M4 front lines in the region of Ain Issa, was repelled by SDF forces.
– A Turkish drone attacked a civilian car south of Tel Brak in the Hasakah province, killing three civilians: a woman of HPC (community self defense), a member of the Council of Tel Brak and a religious figure.
– Turkish drones have targeted the wheat silos in Sarin, resulting in significant damage and destruction.
# Syria
– Israel arrested two protesters in their newly occupied zone in southern Syria
– The Syrian Women council made a press conferance in Hasakah to share the statement they released in different languages.
# Foreign policy
– Two U.S. senators introduced a bipartisan bill aimed at imposing sanctions on Turkey. The “Countering Turkish Aggression Act” is designed to prevent further Turkish attacks on the SDF, which they warn could lead to a resurgence of ISIS and pose a direct threat to U.S. national security and global stability.
– Colombian President Petro said in a social media post: “In present-day Syria, a free Kurdish journalist has been killed. I call on the leaders of Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, and the United States to stop dividing Syria. This division is heading towards a new genocide — the genocide of the Kurdish people.”
# International solidarity
– Kurdish youth carried out a civil disobedience action in a Paris airport against the attacks by the Turkish state and its affiliated SNA gangs against NES. The police took the protesters into custody.
Revolutionary greetings!
—————————
Updates 20-12-24
# NES
– Kurdish Journalists Cihan Bilgin (ANHA) and Nazin Dashtan (ANF) were killed yesterday in a drone strike after they filmed the effects of the Turkish attacks on the Tishreen Dam.
– Cihan was a journalist for over 8 years. She covered the liberation of Raqqa, bringing attention to the extraordinary struggle of the SDF and the women of YPJ. She was deeply engaged with the philosophy of women’s liberation.
– Nazim was among the first journalists to document the resistance of Kobane in 2014. He reported on the brutality and oppression of the Turkish state. He was a very kind-hearted person, and always ready to support the work of international journalists.
– SNA groups launched an offensive in Qereqozah bridge, with heavy weapons and support of Turkish drones. After fierce clashes, the offensive was been repeled by the Manbij Military Council and other SDF forces.
# Syria
– On Dec. 19, U.S. Central Command Forces conducted a precision airstrike targeting ISIS leader Abu Yusif aka Mahmud in the Deir ez-Zor Province, killing him and another ISIS operative.
– Former SAA soldiers who fled to Iraq during the fall of the regime had been handed out to new Syrian authorities (HTS) as captives.
– Allegedly, former SAA soldiers in Latakia ambushed a group of HTS fighters in Masyaf, inflicting several casualties. Remnants of Assad’s army have vowed to continue fighting in the west coast region of Syria, and are threatening to arm “popular organisations”. Local groups are taking up weapons to defend demselves from the constant attacks they received from HTS and SNA groups.
– In the western countriside of Daraa, several protests had been taking place against the new israely occupation. In the village Ma’riya IDF opened fire killing one protestor.
# Foreign politics
– Iraq FM called with british FM to inform that ISIS is reorganizing its ranks, expanding control in several areas over Syria and Iraq with seized weapons from syrian army depots that were temporarily abandoned with the collapse of the regime.
– British media said on Thursday that counter-terrorism police in the UK are on high alert for the potential return of British supporters of the Islamic State (ISIS) following their potential release from prisons in Syria.
– Pentagon Press SecretaryP.Ryder told reporters that there were in fact 2,000 US troops in Syria, not 900 as previously reported, adding that “these additional forces are considered temporary rotational forces that deploy to meet shifting mission deployments.”
– Turkish police have arrested ten Kurdish Journalists in Van for protesting against the martyrdom of their two colleagues. This follows a long list of arrests that started at the end of November, right before the offensive of HTS started. Dozens of polititians, protesters and journalists, including elected kurdish municipal mayors had been arrested.
– EU diplomatic envoy met with HTS in Damascus to discuss the agreements of the Aqaba conferance, giving support for an inclusive Syrian led political process that results in representative government, which respects the rights of all Syrians. He expressed cautious willingness to support rebuilding of Syria.
– Germanys FM A.Baerbock, who started her office with promising “a feminist foreign policy” and 3 days ago talked about Kobane as a symbol of resistance for kurds, today stated “The Kurdish groups must be disarmed and integrated into the national security structure”.
– US department of Justice removed the page stating a $10 milion reward for information on Syrian islamist leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa (al-Jolani).
# International Solidarity
– The International Federation of Journalists condemned the targeting of Cihan Bilgin and Nazim Dastan by Turkey, and demanded that those responsible for targeting journalists in war zones be held accountable.
– The Coalition for Women in Journalism issues a statement condemning the Turkish drone strike that killed two journalists yesterday: https://www.womeninjournalism.org/alerts/syria-turkish-drone-strike-kills-kurdish-journalsts-jihan-belki-and-nazim-dashdam
# Analysis
The assassination of two Kurdish journalists is a painful reminder of how news and information is a weapon of war.
We are seeing elaborate schemes in social networks, where fake information and fabricated war headlines are propagated, distorting reality and creating confusion about the situation on the ground. This is part of psychological warfare, another form of waging war employed by our enemies. This broadcast channel is partly an answer to it. We know that war has many sides, and that we need to give collective answers to all of them, building mechanisms of self-defense against all kinds of attacks. We also see attacks against health workers, with an ambulance that was transporting injured recently being targeted in the Kobane region. These kinds of attacks are not just attacks against civilians, are attacks against basic ethical standards.
Western powers like to claim a moral high ground, talking about democracy and human rights. Turkey is a NATO member that has been spitting on any basic ethical standards, and still got a new bribe of 1 billion E in the form of aid to control refugees. HTS was on the terrorist lists for its links with Al-Qaeda. But now, climbing the ladder to the top of a Nation-State, that is not relevant for the other heads of State anymore. As it already happened with the Taliban.
It deeply reflects how States are born, with brutal and murderous gangs fighting and killing, until one big man manages to establish himself as president, as king, or even as god. And then the other big men around him applaude and congratulate his ascend. After that, maybe they put some make-up and rewrite the history here and there, to make sure it suits whatever is the current trend in present literature. And, voila! A new goverment is born.
It is also pathetic to see Turkey and Israel building tensions, accusing each other of the same crimes they are committing themselves. Especially when their military intelligence agencies collaborate and negotiate the occupation and partition of Syria behind the cameras.
“The Truth will not remain captive in the darkness”
— Nazim Dashtan
Comrade Nazim, comrade Cihan, all the brave fighters defending this revolution:
Rest in Power!
Revolutionary greetings!
————————
Updates 19-12-24
# Syria
– Big demonstration on Damascus with special participation of many women in reaction to misogin declarations from members of the provisional government. The protesters chanted slogans such as “Free Civil Syria” and “We want democracy, not theocracy,” holding placards that read “Towards a State of Law and Citizenship” and “No Free Homeland without Free Women.”
#NES
– Big demonstration in Qamishlo (with usual participation on many woman) against the turkish ocupation. The “independance” flags were present, waving next to SDF flags. The protestors chanted slogans such as “No to the occupation,” “SDF is our strength,” “Long live the brotherhood of peoples,” “Long live the unity of Kurds, Arabs, and Syriacs,” and “Our resistance guarantees our freedom.”
## Eufrates Region
– Violent clashes on the outskirts of Kobane region during last night. Turkish proxy forces continued gatharing troops arround Qereqozah Bridge and Tishreen dam.
– Turkey is building defense lines and deploying heavy weapons in the Turkey-Syria border next ot the city of Kobane, while simultaneously building a border wall around the occupied territories. Communication over phone and internet was blocked in Kobane region.
– After an ISIS attack near Raqqa, the SDF antiterror units performed a sweep ov several villages in the area to maintain security and stability.
– After ISIS attack, SDF carrried out raids on the outskirts of Raqqa.
# Foreign politics
– FM of Turkey Hakan Fidan gave an interview to al-Jazeera saying that they expect the Syrian goverment to crack down on the “terrorists of YPG”. “If our concerns are eliminated, we have no reason to intervene or remain in Syria”. He criticised the US for supporting “SDF terrorists” and Israel for occupying syrian territory.
– Russian president V.Putin said: “We need to solve the kurdish problem… Turkey has a problem with the PKK for decades. After the First World War the Kurds were promised their own state, but they were deceived.”
– Former french president Hollande says “I cannot tolerate the abandonment of the Kurds. I am calling on France and the International Coalition to protect the Syrian Kurds.”
# International Solidarity
– Internationalists interrupted the EU Parliament session to denounce Turkey’s assault on Rojava and call for the freedom of Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan
– Brasilian activists gathered infront of the turkish embassy in Brasil to protest the agressions against Rojava/ NES
Revolutionary greetings!
————————-
Updates 18-12-24
# NES Updates
– SNA violates the ceasefire by launching attacks in several locations south of Kobani, Qaraqozah bridge and Tishreen dam, despite the US-brokered ceasefire agreement. SDF successfully repelled the attack, inflicting heavy loses to SNA.
– SDF successfully shot down another Turkish “Bayrakdar TB2” drone in the vicinity of the Qaraqozah bridge and destroyed a mobile radar system of the Turkish army near the Tishreen dam.
– Turkish occupation drones bombed a broadcast station for Radio Kobani FM south of Kobani. All equipment was burned and the station damaged.
– ISIS attack on university checkpoint in Al-Kasrat killing two Asayish forces yesterday evening. Two further Asayish and one civilian were wounded.
– the Syrian Federation for Human Rights and 98 Syrian human rights organizations issued a statement condemning the attacks of the Turkish occupation. The statement warned about the danger of return of ISIS under new names and included a list of demands: https://hawarnews.com/en/turkeys-crimes-threaten-civil-peace-and-restore-specter-of-isis
# Syria
– Local newspaper reports that HTS informed Palestinian organizations in Syria that they are not allowed to have weapons and conduct trainings on Syrian ground anymore.
– HTS is being blamed for having desecrated a christian graveyard and a church in Hama. Tombs of saints and Christian historic personalities from that region were opened, destroyed and desecrated, holy books thrown on the floor.
– Spokesman for the new Syrian government says that women are not qualified for certain government posts and that the hijab will not be forced on “the Christian component or any other component.” Al-Jolani says: “Syria will not be Afghanistan and I believe in educating women”
– An unknown fire broke out at Aleppo International Stadium in Al-Hamdaniya neighborhood in Aleppo city, a short while ago.
– SNA factions are fighting each other in Manbij neighbourhoods over stolen goods. Also in northern Aleppo the SNA group Ahrar al-Sharqiya clashed against SNA military police.
– Since the beginning of the week, 10 civilians were killed by landmines left behind.
# Foreign Politics
## In EU
– German Foreign Minister A. Baerbock posted on twitter: “Kobani is a symbol of the brave Kurds’ struggle against ISIS. Spilling more blood is the last thing people should experience after 14 years of war.” She also urged Turkey to stop and maintain the integrity of Syrian territory.
– The parliament of Switzerland officially recognised the yezidi Genocide.
– Representatives of the Catalan government are visiting the DAANES on a diplomatic mission. Catalonia is the first government worldwide to recognise the DAANES.
– French Foreign Minister demands that DAANES is part of the political transition in Syria.
## In US
– U.S. Senators L. Graham (Rep) and C. v. Hollen (Dem): “Turkey must accept the ceasefire and demilitarized zone, or we will draft a bipartisan sanctions list as we did in 2019.”
– US State Department: We are considering sending military personnel to Syria
# International Solidarity
– The Internationalist Commune has issued a call for artists to create revolutionary art in all mediums. The full call can be found at: https://internationalistcommune.com/call-for-revolutionary-art-solidarity-with-rojava/
– 32 NGOs, trade unions and other organisations from Spain sent a letter to the Spanish government in solidarity with the Kurdish people and the DAANES. They list 3 demands: humanitarian assistance, a resolute stand against Turkey and the recognition of the DAANES.
– In Berlin activists squatted the countries biggest news station ZDF, demanding the threats of turkish invasion to become a focus point in german news coverage
# Analysis
The General Commander of YPJ Rohilat Efrîn highlighted the ongoing resistance against foreign occupation and stressed the significance of safeguarding the region’s autonomy and women’s rights. She noted that the Middle East is being redesigned, with paramilitary groups and factions contributing to insecurity. The attacks against women symbolize the broader destabilization of society. The importance of international backing for the region’s self-management system is seen as vital for the Kurdish, Arab, and broader regional populations.
Revolutionary greetings!
—————————-
Updates 17-12-24
# NES Updates
– The ceasefire agreement between Turkey and SDF has been extended through US mediation until the end of this week. US state dep.: “We dont want to see any party take advantage of the current unstable situation to advance their own narrow interests…”
SDFs M.Abdi states: “we announce our readiness to propose the establishment of a demilitarized zone in the city of Kobani, with the redeployment of security forces under American supervision and presence. This initiative aims to address Turkey’s security concerns and ensure lasting stability in the region.”
## Eufrates region
– The forces of Manbij Military Council repelled an attack by the Turkish occupation mercenaries on the Tishreen Dam this afternoon, where fierce clashes lasted more than two hours, during which a number of mercenaries were eliminated, forcing them to flee the area.
– Multiple drone strikes were reported in Ain Issa and Raqqa, while protests against the turkish invasion plans continue in Kobane and Qamishlo.
– Tishreen Dam is non-operational. This means >2 million people are facing severe water shortages. UNICEF, Committee of the Red Cross in Syria and Syrian Red Crescent conduct joint mission to the Dam’s technical management facility for urgent repairs.
## M4 area
– Power station in Til Temir was fixed with support of Russian forces, but was bombed again few hours later as well as other villages of Til Temir front lines.
# Foreign politics
## In EU
– A delegation of the DAANES is in Strasbourg for talks with parties in the European Parliament. The talks are about the latest developments in Syria after the overthow of Assad, the ongoing attacks by Turkey and its proxy force SNA, the increasing threat from the so-called Islamic State and the humanitarian situation on the ground.
– EU Left coalition leader M. Schirdewan has spoken out in the EU Parliament in favor of recognizing the DAANES. “That would be credible European foreign policy.”
– Head of EU parliament U.v.d.Leyen: “The EU-Turkey relationship is important. Our economic relationship is growing stronger every year. And Turkey remains a key partner on migration. An extra €1 billion for 2024 is on its way to support Turkey’s efforts to host Syrian refugees.”
## In US
– The Pentagon says the ISIS prison camp al-Hol presents a significant security concern in the sense that were ISIS able to affect some type of breakout, of any detention facility, that would be a significant setback and something that would be very concerning. Which is why we continue to work very closely with the SDF. (…) the SDF that maintains the facility and the US military provides sort of a — kind of an outer layer of security out there.
# Damascus government
– UN expects 1 mil. refugees to return to Syria within the next year
– More mass graves have been discovered outside Damascus. Estimations say that up to 150.000 prison detainees had been killed, doubling previous estimates.
# Analysis
We can see how EU and US are not concerned with the past of HTS as a branch of Al-Qaeda, accepting their provisional government very fast. At the same time very little support or recognition has been given to NES, even when has been the main force on the ground fighting ISIS. Clearly the deciding factors for western powers are not human rights, ethical values and democracy as they like to claim, their decisions are being guided by anti-refugee sentiments and economical interests on oil and gas.
As right-wing parties take more power in governments, their electoral promises of harder migration laws guide their political programs. Those governments end up supporting authoritarian regimes that promise order and stability, hoping they will keep refugees away from their borders, when its exactly those regimes that force people to flee. There is a long history of western powers, especially US, supporting religious fundamentalist groups over socialist revolutionary forces. This goes against ethnic and religious minorities and especially against women and queers, since religious fundamentalism and patriarchy always go hand in hand.
A German organisation called GfbV (society for threatened peoples) warned:
“The new rulers of Syria are presenting themselves in the media as moderate, but there are already many signs that they are not keeping their promises. (…)
Turkish ruler Erdoğan has already sent his foreign minister to Damascus to torpedo a peaceful solution between HTS and DANNES. Erdoğan’s policy is extremely dangerous. The German government, especially the Federal Foreign Office, must not rely on Erdoğan and the Syrian Islamists if it really wants to create stability and a long-term peace order”
We see that the liberal left seems more aware of the situation, but they are not gonna risk anything to stop it. As it already happened with ISIS, there are threats that won’t be stopped with political diplomacy and economic sanctions. Fascism can have many colors, and it is always in deeply militarized and patriarchal environments where it thrives the best. Religious fundamentalism is therefore a perfect ground for fascism in the Middle East, as islamophobia and racist nationalism is in western territories.
Fascism needs to be stopped before it’s to late. Even if having different colors, authoritarian forces will eventually cooperate to eradicate autonomy and diversity. The mentality of dominant male, imposing their hegemony and dreaming of bigger and bigger nation-states under their rule, is the main threat for any expression of free life. But denouncing it is not enough, we have to take action to make sure their ambitions are prevented. And if not you, who? If not now, when?
One solution. Revolution.
Revolutionary greetings!
————————————————————————————
Updates 16-12-24
# NES updates
– The ceasefire negotiations between SDF and Turkey failed. There are significant military buildups of SNA forces around Kobane, that may indicate an imminent attack. SDF is ensuring commitment to defend the region, having positions around Qereqozah bridge.
– Ambulances and other vehicles that went to evacuate people in Manbij had been prevented to access the city by SNA groups.
– In Tal Rifat, SNA groups called for all men between 18 to 60 years old to leave the city in the next 48 hours. Many people rejected that call and allegedly riots broke out. SNA imposed a curfew, not allowing anyone to leave their homes
– A big demonstration on Kobane against the threat of Turkish invasion happen today. Protests against SNA groups looting and killing also continued in Manbij.
– Turkey continues the bombings of critical infrastructure all around NES. The power station of Til Temir has been attacked again, cutting electricity in all the city.
– Lekolin.org, a research institution of the self-administration, published a file identifying 415 ISIS fighters operating within the ranks of the SNA. Allegedly, it was found in a SNA fighter memory card with instructions for the ISIS fighters to advance to Kobani after capturing Qereqozah bridge.
# Syria political transition
– Ahmed Al-Sharaa (a.k.a. Abu Mohamed al-Jolani) met with Geir Pedersen, special envoy from the UN, discussing about the ongoing process of political transition in Syria. An statement emphasized they work for “inclusive and credible political transition, led and owned by Syria, based on the principles outlined in Security Council Resolution 2254”, and also “the UN’s intention to provide all forms of assistance to the Syrian people”.
– A top diplomat from the EU confirms that sanctions will remain in place for now, due to ongoing concerns over Syria’s political landscape and opposition dynamics.
– Convoys of the Military Operation Administration (linked to the HTS military operation) arrived and deployed in Deir Ezzor city.
– US announced several strikes against ISIS, stating 12 fighters killed and no civilian casualties.
– Israeli warplanes have carried out intense airstrikes targeting multiple sites in the rural areas of Tartus and Latakia, including warehouses and air defense bases.
– Explosions heard in Albukamal area, near the border with Iraq, when an unidentified drone was flying over that region.
# Civil protests and International Solidarity
– Activists of women organizations and other kurdish political organizations are organizing protest camps in both sides of the Syria-Turkey border in the cities of Qamishlo-Nusaybin.
– Activists in Germany have occupied a former turkish embassy building and the famous Brandenburger Tor in Berlin, hanging banners in solidarity with Rojava and lighting fireworks.
– Activists in Vienna installed a “security zone for democracy” in front of the turkish embassy, declaring Turkey responsible for the ongoing escalation in NES and demanding a political solution.
# Analysis
Not much time for sharing analysis on the last days, but we have to remark once again that the risk of an attack on Kobane is very hight. We will follow the situation but internet cuts can also be common if the conflict escalates. Keep updated and #DefendRojava
Revolutionary greetings!
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10 point diplomacy proposal of NES
The Autonomous Administration of NES has proposed 10 points to start a political dialogue with the provisional goverment.
“Cooperation between the governments of NES and Damascus would be to the advantage of everyone in Syria and could help overcome the current difficulties.”
1. First of all, it is important to maintain the unity and sovereignty of the Syrian state and to protect the country from attacks by the Turkish state and its supporters.
2. Military operations on the entire Syrian territory should be ended to start a comprehensive and constructive national dialogue.
3. We appeal to all sides, to refrain from rhetoric of hatred and betrayal to pave the way for a constructive dialogue. Syria is a country that is rich in many ways. This wealth must be preserved, based on justice and democracy.
4. We suggest an early meeting of the Syrian political actor: inside in Damascus to standardize the visions for the transition phase.
5. We would like to work for women to participate even more in the political process than before.
6. We emphasize that resources and economic wealth should be distributed fairly between all Syrian regions, since they belong to all citizens of the Syria.
7. We would like to work to ensure that the original and violently displaced population can return to their areas. It is important to us to preserve their cultural heritage and to end the policies of demographic change.
8. In view of the developments in Syria, we reaffirm our commitment in the fight against terrorism to prevent the return of IS terrorists, through the joint cooperation between SDF and the international anti-IS coalition.
9. We are of the firm believe that the occupation must be ended. The Syrian people must be given the opportunity to determine their future and use the principle of the good neighborhood.
10. We welcome the constructive role of the Arab states, the United Nations, the International Anti-IS coalition and all active international actors and ask everyone to take on a positive and effective role in the advice and support of the Syrian people. And to facilitate the communication between the different population groups in order to ensure stability and security and stop foreign interventions. “
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Updates 15-12-24
# Political transition in Syria
– Declarations of Ahmed al-Sharaa (aka al-Jolani):
All factions will be dissolved and there will be no weapons except in the hands of the state.
The first priorities are to rebuild the destroyed homes and return all displaced until the last tent.
There will be no more compulsory military service.
Very important economic decisions will be taken.
# NES updates
– YPJ anounced that will soon publish a report on the attacks. Since 27.11 SDF is counting 112 shehids from SDF, Asayish, Komandos, YPG, YPJ, Syriac military council, HRE and HPC
– American military convoy arrived in kobane and raised a US flag in the main administration center, stating their intention to remain in the city to deter a Turkish attack.
– Protests continue in Manbij after the occupation of SNA, with multiple tribes expressing their support for SDF. A general strike was called to start today, with many shops and workshops closing down in protest for the crimes of SNA.
# ISIS resurgence
– Iraqi security officials warn of a looming ISIS plot to target prisons in Syria controlled by the
SDF, potentially leading to a mass escape of terrorists.
– Humanitarian NGO working in Hol camp, that hosts more than 40.000 women and children of ISIS fighters, suspended it’s work due to fear of a possible rebellion and attacks.
# International solidarity
– In the global Day of action, December 14th 2024, many protests and actions in Defense of Rojava took place in many different cities. To find more about it follow the campaign RiseuUp4Rojava
Revolutionary greetings!
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Updates 14-12-24
# Political transition
– Al Julani made a several statements to consolidate his position as ‘de facto’ head of Syrian state, using a moderate and conciliatory tone, claiming no conflict with Israel or Iran, will to stop captaon production in Syria (a drug that the regime was producing)
– The Aacqba arab conference concluded with a statement supporting the current Syria transition and condemning Israel expansion of the “security zone”.
– Turkey has been the first state to open embassy on Damascus, after more than 12 years since they close their embassy in the Syrian capital.
– 150 mass graves containing what is estimated to be 75,000 bodies are being digged in Al-Hussainiya area in the Damascus countryside, behind the Conference Palace.
# Eufrates Region
– Bodies of SDF fighters are being buried, mostly in Kobane but also in other places where those fighters came from.
– SNA is looting and destroying several locations in Manbij. They burned an important library, they killed a restaurant owner while looting his place and many more crimes are being reported.
– SDF command decleared that the ceasfire on the Tishrin dam has not been implemented and that is therefore not effective. SNA is now mobilizing big numbers of soldiers towards the Qereqozah bridge in the kobane region border. Allegedly, turkey is also rallying forces on the Turkey-Syria border around Kobane. Supply of water and electricity from Tishrin to Kobane region dam has also been cut.
# ISIS resurge
– The Palmyra region and the Hamad Syrian desert are witnessing continuous raids of ISIS. The number of ISIS attacks since toppling Bashar al-Assad on December 8 is now 6, resulting in the deaths of 70 people, including civilians and soldiers.
# Context on the ceasefire disagreements –
The tomb of Suleyman Shah, short explanation Written by YPG/YPJ International
Part of the negotiated ceasefire between #SDF and #Turkey was connected to the location of the tomb of Suleyman Shah and its military implications. Let’s dive into this a little deeper to understand what this is all about:
Suleyman Shah lived in 13th century and, according to Ottoman legacy, is the grandfather of Osman I, who founded the Ottoman Empire. Because todays #Turkey likes to see itself as successor of the Ottoman Empire, the tomb and remains are important for them.
The tomb of Suleyman Shah was Turkey’s only foreign enclave, located more or less 30km from the Turkish border close to Qere Qozaq, on the river banks of Euphrates. In 2014 the tomb and its 38 Turkish guards, were completely surrounded by #ISIS.
So the tomb was brought to Ashme village, between #Kobane and Euphrates river, a site closer to the Turkish border, where it was easier and less risky to protect, but still on Syrian (and #SDF) territory. Turkey stressed that the relocation would only be temporarily.
While now negotiating the ceasefire, it was offered to help transfer the tomb again, but #Turkey instead requested that it will be given 1km of land in this area, where they intend to deploy heavy weapons and build a military base. Thus no agreement could be reached.
Revolutionary greetings!
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Updates 13-12-24
# Syria political transition
– Turkey declares they will open their embassy in damascus tomorrow saturday to support the transitional government
– The EU is promising 4M€ for a new Humanitarian Air Bridge to deliver emergency healthcare and essential supplies to Syria. This comes as European countries freeze all asylum cases for Syrians, discussing deportations in far-right dominated debates.
– Israeli defense minister make claims about the region of the newly occupied ‘security zone’ as “historical moment of Mount Hermon returned to our control after 51 years”, indicating their intention of holding those territories besides all declarations of “temporary buffer zone”.
– In a meeting between US and Turkey, Blinken spoke of the “need to ensure that the coalition to fight ISIS can continue to fulfill its important task […] crucial to making sure [the re-emergence of ISIS] doesn’t happen are the Syrian Democratic Forces, which we support”
# NES
– The Kurdistan National Congress met with dozens of Kurdish tribal and political figures in Jazira Canton to emphasize their support for their military forces and the Democratic Autonomous Administration, calling on the Kurds to achieve national unity.
– Merazins (burial ceremonies) of fighters against the turkish attacks are taking place all around northern Syria. 9 Komandos and 2 YPJ fighters who fell in the defense of Manbij, together with 2 HPC-jin (women civil defense forces) who fell in Qereqozah had been burried in Kobane. 4 fighters of the Syriac military council who fell in the frontlines of the M4 – Til Temir region were buried in Hasseke.
In Aleppo 10 fighters from different YPG/HRE units were laid to rest.
– Rumours and fabricated lists of alleged demands of HTS and SDF negotiations that are circulating in social networks had been revealed fake by the political bodies of the DAANES.
– Dismissing the ceasefire agreements, SNA attacked and took control of the Tishrin dam. Allegedly, SDF recaptured the area later in a counter offensive.
– SNA factions are also starting ground attacks on the Ain Issa region from the occupied strip near the M4 road, with artillery support of the Turkish army. In the Til Temir region of the Turkish occupied strip also constant bombing
# International solidarity: Global day of action December 14th
– There is an internationalist call for a global day of action for tomorrow 14th of December. We call you all to support this, joint protests and take action to defend the revolution!
Revolutionary greetings!
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Updates 12-12-2024
# “Real Politik”
– The military activity is transitioning to political activity, as different agreements, political talks and official declarations are becoming the pivotal elements of the future of Siria. Nation-states wave their plans and make their moves, we won’t dive on that.
– Several governments are stating their intentions of opening embassies in Damascus to start relations with the provisional government, signaling their approval of the interim govrment and the power transition in Syria.
– The autonomous administration made an official statement declaring that all official buildings of DAANES will fly the new/old Syrian flag, as a symbol of victory of the revolution and the fall of the regime. This comes as a paradoxical return since it is the flag that YPG was waving in their first congress in 2013.
# Streets politics
– Protests in different cities are becoming key elements to measure force and support base of different factions. They are also being used as war propaganda, and we can see pro-turkish media accounts spreading videos of gatherings in different cities presenting them as protests against SDF, while at the same time don’t talk about the demonstrations in support of SDF and the Self-Administration institutions.
– A man armed with a light machine gun (PKM) opened fire in the streets of Raqqa, injuring some Assayish (Security forces) and also civilians. Allegedly, 43 people injured, not clear if there are any deads. Pro-turkish channels spreading fake information claiming that SDF opened fire against civilians. SDF is denying it sharing videos of what really happened.
# War on Eufrates region
– A ceasefire was brokered to halt hostilities in Manbij, agreeing to 1) SDF (MMC) to withdraw from Manbij safely 2) The tomb of Suleiman Shah to be given to SNA and Turkey 3) Tishreen dam to become a demilitarized zone with officers of the dam controlling it’s administration.
– SNA groups attacked the area of Tishreen dam with heavy forces despite the announcement of ceasefire. After a turkish drone hit the dam few days ago, and heavy clashes could damage the critical infrastructure of the dam unleashing a terrible catastrophe.
# Analysis
The situation is getting very confusing on the ground, with desinformation spreading on social networks and political talks behind closed doors. Verifying information is becoming a critical step to understand what is happening, since turkish propaganda strategy relays on a very strong desinformation apparatus.
This specially affect a lot of Syrian returnees, since many of them had been living in Turkey and being exposed to the turkish narrative of criminalization of SDF. This will feed ethnical tensions between kurds an arabs, risking more conflicts and even violence.
This comes together with the inter-kurdish conflicts we discussed two days ago, and indicates a general plan of turkish state intelligence to divide and isolate the leading forces of the revolution. Other forces like US or HTS will not oppose to such a plan, since a weakened revolutionary force will make it easier to dilute and manipulate the political project of the DAANES. This puts the achievements of the revolution in serious danger, and is more important than ever to expose and denounce such strategies, building a common revolutionary front to face enemy attacks.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
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Updates 11-12-2024
# Ongoing situation
– The interim government of HTS is slowly formalizing their power, making interviews in western suits and staging press conferences declaring “Our goal is to restore security and stability to all Syrian cities and return millions of Syrian refugees”.
– Israel continue their bombing campaign, with more than 400 targets hit. They announced destruction of 80% of military capabilities of Syria. The IDF occupation (“security zone”) is growing every day, expanding alongside the Lebanon border, with tanks now at 20 km from Damascus.
– SOHR reports attacks of violent masked men in Latakia and Damascus outskirts. Videos spread in social networks with masked military teams storming towns, mainly of christian population. Some videos show al-Nusra flags being waved by the attackers.
# Turkey and SNA offensive
– Turkish air force bombs several villages around Kobane city, including Lafarge cement plant and Mishtenur. Some reports indicate that SNA fighters (with turkish air support) are crossing the Qereqozah bridge to start ground attacks on Kobane, but in the last hours very few information is arriving, probably due to internet restrictions.
– Turkey also bombed the Assayish headquarters of the Raqqa, this is the first airstrike in Raqqa city since 2017, when SDF liberated it from ISIS. US coalition forces moved some troops inside the city after the strike.
– Videos of the brutalities of SNA in the territories they occupy from SDF are spreading in social networks. Their channels are going full of videos were they record themselves torturing and killing, with calls to “kill all the kurds” and other anti-kurdish statements.
– Bombings alongsidethe M4 and Til Temir front lines are also increasing every day, with drones, mortars and rockets hitting different points, as close to the city as the village of Til Cuma at just 2 kilometers of Til Temir.
# Other related updates
– Turkey is opening borders to let Syrians return to Syria as “voluntary return”, making them sign a document that don’t allow them to return to Turkey. Several European countries are also discussing about the situation for Syrians to return, with narratives dominated by far-right parties.
– Rojava Information Center is also working on daily updates, with verified information and reports from different areas of NES. Read their report of 10-12-24 here: https://rojavainformationcenter.org/2024/12/update-escalation-in-nes/
# Analysis
HTS is now busy making itself more presentable to western audiences, hoping to gain official legitimacy throw capturing the Syrian state structure. Western powers are going along with that, and no one is putting much attention to the small scale attacks that their rogue islamist groups are doing. The DAANES is holding talks with them, accepting them as provisional government for now, hoping to halt Turkish offensive and work towards a federal Syria that respects regional autonomy.
Turkey is moving further in their attacks, striking as far as Raqqa, making a bold statement that they are ready to defy US red lines in order to achieve their aims. The SNA soldiers are recording and spreading videos of the horrendous crimes they are committing as part of their psychological warfare, evoking the behavior of ISIS. This is not a coincidence, several ISIS fighters have been reported to be now holding command positions inside different factions of SNA.
Israel is moving further into Syria, defying even the UN that called to not push forward. With Russia and Iran losing all their influence on Syria, Israel and Turkey (strategic NATO allies, Turkey being formal member of the military alliance) are taking advantage of the situation to advance their imperialist agendas, indirectly supporting each other in their occupations.
DAANES is struggling to sustain the developments of past years, with Turkey attacks on Eufrates region and inter-tribal tensions in Deir-Ezzor, where some tribes pleading alliances with HTS while others reaffirm their support to SDF. This is nothing new, is the continuation of the tribal conflicts that had been ongoing in the region for some time.
One important topic to put attention is the situation of women. Women played very important roles all along Syria since the first uprisings of 2011, but in HTS protests and events, the absence of women is very noticeable, specially when compared with the role of women in DAANES. Rojava is a women revolution, and this is becoming even more obvious now, when all other forces are overwhelmingly male.
Enough for today, keep struggling and support the revolution!
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
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Updates 10-12-2024
# Eufrates region: Manbij and Kobane
– An alleged agreement of Turkey and US for SDF to withdraw from Manbij has been reported, referring to past agreements of YPG not to be allowed west of Euphrates. SDF continue fighting in Tabqa region, south of Manbij.
– As SNA takes control of Manbij region, videos of their atrocities spread over social networks, including brutal executions in the middle of the streets, even a raid and assassination of injured people in a hospital. A video of a checkpoint with SNA fighters wearing ISIS patches has even been screened on several television channels, and ISIS patches are seen in many videos circulating.
– Drones and artillery fire had been hitting Kobane canton, including Kobane city and Mishtenur (Strategical military point next to the city). Several civilians had been killed in those strikes. Also in Ain Issa, east of Kobane, several civilians had been killed in drone strikes
– SNA tried to cross the Qereqozah bridge between Manbij and Kobane. SDF repelled the attacks, killing dozens of SNA fighters and capturing some armored vehicles that SNA fighters left behind in their retreats.
# Syria aftermath
– Mohammed al-Bashir is now leading the transitional government of Syria in Damasc.
– UN envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen arrives to Damasc, calling for a process of unification of different factions, emphasizing that HTS is the dominant faction but is not the only one. UN also asks Israel for restrain in their security zones.
– Israel targeted more than 300 locations an military points, claiming it as the biggest air operation they ever launched, announcing they destroy all air defense capabilities of Syria. Israel “security zone” is also expanding, evacuating some villages in south-west Syria and deploying tanks at less than 30 km of Damascus.
# Political developments on NES
– DAANES is calling for a general ceasefire for all Syria to open space for dialog and a transition to a new democratic Syria. Solidarity committees are organizing demonstrations and protests in many different cities. The kurdish women’s movement is calling for a general day of mobilization for December 14.
– Allegedly, the ministry of defense of KRG received a request to deploy 5000 “peshmerga Roj” to support SNA factions. Allegedly, 200 peshmerga Roj equipped with heavy weapons are already being deployed in areas under SNA control. This comes as a political move from Turkey to spark intra-kurdish conflicts, exploiting the contradictions between ENKS (Syrian branch of KDP, Barzani-led political party in Basur, Iraq) and PYD (Major kurdish political party of the DAANES).
– More than a handred thousand refugees displaced from Aleppo and Shehba region are arriving to different areas in NES, mostly in Tabqa and Raqqa. Heyva Sor and DAANES local councils in different regions are doing everything in their hands to assist them, providing food, housing, blankets and medical assistance.
– SDF calls for US to fulfill their promises and intervene to prevent further attacks on Kobane.
# Analysis
The withdraw of SDF from Manbij is a painful concession. Many comrades lost their lives in the liberation of Manbij from the hands of ISIS, including the brave arab commander of YPG Abu Leila, also 8 internationalist fighters. As Erdogan stated many times, their next target is now Kobane, the proud city that became the turning point on the war against ISIS through and historic resistance. Kobane was also a key element for the internationalization of the Rojava revolution and the Kurdish question, becoming a symbol of resistance known to the whole world.
The dimension of Israel attack all over Syria is not just a deterrence action against the possibility of a hostile Syria, it is also a show of force a military capabilities to neighboring countries. It is also the perfect scenario for IDF to test their response capacity and air force at such a big scale, without fear of any repercussions since there is no one in Syria able to answer to such brutal attacks.
Turkey’s propaganda campaigns, with miss information and fabricated videos, aims to weaken SDF and destabilize the DAANES. Now they also try to spark intra-kurdish conflict, harvesting the investments they made for decades in the Barzani-led KRG, using all tools at their hands in this war. Even HTS is calling attention to that, publishing a press statement denouncing SNA’s fabrication of fake videos. But exposing their dirty methods is not enough to stop them, we need to take action in all fronts possible to put an end to their atrocities.
Syria is moving from the joy and celebrations after the fall of the regime, to the darkest hours it lived since the worst times of the war. Israel and Turkey are committing massacres and abusing their power to impose their agendas, taking advantage of the situation to feed their greed and expansionist ambitions. The revolution is under existential threat, and it is our duty, as internationalists and as revolutionaries, to make sure they can’t break this revolution. The world is descending into really dark paths, with war and oppression gaining ground all around. But there is also hope and revolutionary opportunities in those situations. It is partly in our hands to decide where we go from this point.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
# Last minute updates
– Heavy clashes ongoing between SDF and SNA on Qereqozaq bridge connecting Manbij and Kobane right now. Threats of attacks on Kobane tonight.
– SDF left Deir Ezzor city allowing operations room of HTS to take control of the city. It also include the border crossing of Albukamal and the al-taym oil field in the Deir Ezzor desert. At the same time SDF announced their readiness to dialog with the provisional government.
– It is confirmed that the bombings that took place in Qamishlo yesterday was not conducted by Israel air force but by Turkey air force.
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Updates 09-12-2024
#Aftermath of the regime collapse
– The provinces of Latakia and Tartus are now also in full control of opposition forces, no regime loyalist area remains.
– Syrians in Libanon are going to the border crossing hoping to go back to their homes. Syrians in Turkey also going in mass, turkish state opening also the Yayladagi border crossing in Hatay.
– The Syrian opposition assigns Mohamed Al-Bashir, the Prime Minister of the Syria Salvation Government (SSG) [HTS political front], to form a transitional government. All position of this transition government are occupied by SSG members, apparently excluding the Syrian Interim Government (SIG)[SNA political front, Turkish aligned]. This might bring new contradictions between HTS and SNA/Turkey.
# Israel attacks
– Israel continues the bombing of strategical targets like armories, air defense systems and chemical factories of SAA in Homs, Hama, Tartus, Latakia and specially Damascus. They anounced on army radio more than 200 targets hits in Syria.
– There are several dead reported from some of those airstrikes, specially in southern Syria. Allegedly several members of the Makhlouf family (family of Hafez al-Assad wife, who are very very rich) were killed in airstrikes, also a local sheik of Sweida.
– IDF also started a ground offensive advancing from the Golan hights, allegedly to establish a “security corridor” or buffer zone, parachuting troops beyond the already occupied area.
# NES (Rojava and beyond)
– The fight in Manbij continued with heavy clashes during the night, with SDF recovering several positions after ambushing and pushing away SNA pockets. SDF and MMC anounced 4 shehids that had been buried today. Videos on social networks show dozens of bodies of SNA fighters spread on Manbij streets.
– Turkish drone strike the village on al-Mistriah, west of Ayn Issa, killing 15 civilians including 6 children, another one hit the area of Zirgan, in Til Temir / Dirbesiye front lines. Drone strikes had been ongoing in different regions under control of SDF, mostly against military targets.
– Together with drone strikes and artillery fire, SNA is also making some moves from the occupied region of Serekaniye-Gires Spi. They made an offensive on Sewami, 25 km west of Til Temir, that was repealed by SDF. An ANKA drone was shot down by SDF in Til Temir area.
– Unrest in Deir Ezzor citty, with protests and looting in some areas. Turkish aligned media spreads videos of protests calling for withdraw of SDF and demands for FSA to come. SDF aligned media shared interviews with tribal leaders calling for peace and standing with SDF.
– Recently “abandoned” positions of SAA in Qamsishlo and Haseke had also been heavily bombed by Israel, including the Qamishlo airport and other air defense systems locations. At least on person was injured in the airstrikes.
# Analysis
There are too many things ongoing in Syria, the developments are extraordinarily fast – and probably confusing for those not familiar with the situation. Every part of the conflict is racing to position themselves and get advantage from the political transition that will follow in Syria.
Regarding the situation in NES, the resistance in Manbij is critical. A collapse of the SDF in Manbij would had been follow by further attack of SNA, but the military proficiency displayed has been the best deterrence for further movements of SNA. It showed that SDF is not the SAA, and that blietzkrieg tactics of russhing with armored vehicles under artillery fire cover can send regime soldiers running away, but SDF is ready to hold positions and fight back.
For Turkey, Manbij is also very important, and it will be a decisive battle for the future of the SDF and the DAANES. This battle is proving that a well trained and prepared force, even if lightly equipped, can inflict massive losses to a much more numerous and well equipped force, even when they have total air supremacy. Every day that SDF holds any ground in Manbij is one more day that Turkey is being defeated, making SNA looking weaker. HTS took several big cities in days, SNA can’t take one middle sized city even when having full support of turkish airforce. But of course, as we said at the beginning, SDF is not SAA.
The attacks of Israel can also open new cans of worms, igniting old hates and legitimizing more extreme and fundamentalist positions inside HTS, overwhelming the moderate face that they had been working to present.
Many more things could be say, but this is already getting long so we stop here for today.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
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Updates 08-12-2024
# The end of the regime
– Bashar al-Assad left Syria and landed in Moscow as different opposition groups entered Damascus. People on the streets all around Syria celebrating the fall of the regime and tople down Assad statues.
– After talks with HTS Russia sees no danger to its 2 military bases in Syria: Hmeimim air base in Latakia (often used to launch airstrikes against rebels) and a naval facility at Tartous. Losing Tartous would be a serious blow to Russia’s ability to project power in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Africa.
– Jubilant supporters of the revolt stormed Syrian embassies in a number of cities around the world, replacing Regime flags with the green, white and black flag thad had been flown throughout the war by his opponents.
#Manbij war
– SNA renewed their offensive on Manbij with support of turkish artillery and airpower, aslo activating sleeping cells they previously infiltrated in Manbij. Several points under heavy clashes, but SDF recovering control of most of the area.
– Turkish warplanes bombed the Autonomous Administration building in centre of Manbij. They also bombed Qaraqozaq bridge severly damaging it, bridge that connects Manbij and Kobane over the Firat.
– Reports saying the city was abandoned by SDF was a result of information warfare developed by the Turkish state. Manbij remains contested as by Sunday evening, mostly with SNA expanding it’s influence western of Manbij and SDF holding ground on eastern part. Heavy clashes ongoing, with both forces alternating control over multiple counter-offensives.
– Heavy clashes between SNA-SDF outside Tabqa also reported.
# Other relevant events
– US promises to keep troups in Syria to stabilize and prevent ISIS re-emergence
– Israel bombing armories of the ‘de facto’ dissolved SAA to destroy advanced weapons
and occupies demilitarized zone in Golan Heights
– Drone strikes on Hano, Til Temir arearea and close Zirgan on the Dirbesiye road.
– 4 Sehid of SDF after an offensive action of ISIS cell in Shedadi area.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
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Updates 07-12-2024
Once agains, so many things happen today. We will just share some important things.
# Collapse of the Syrian Regime
– SAA soldiers are defecting from all fronts. In some regions they simply run away, in some other they hold negotiations with other military forces before abandoning their positions. More than 1500 SAA soldiers crossed into Iraq throw Albukamal crossing.
– In western Syria, as SAA withdraw from their positions those are rapidly filled by HTS and different rebel groups in the north, by the south military operation room from Sweida-Daraa-Quneitra local forces, working more or less affiliated under the banner of FSA.
– Government forces evacuating official buildings of Damascus as rebel forces start to enter the city in the southern neighborhoods. Forces that started the offensive from Al-Tanf are entering from the north, with other groups claiming affiliation to FSA joining.
– Intelligence sources report contradictory information about the presence (or not) of Bashar al Assad in Damascus.
# SDF expansion of territories to protect the region
– In estern Syria, SDF is taking control of some positions alongside Eufrates river, but also local groups claiming affiliation to FSA are taking control of some positions. ISIS also took control of at least 1 position. In Til Temir area, maybe also in other areas, some SAA soldiers hold their military position after defecting and joining the ranks of SDF.
– SDF also takes control of the pockets that SAA controlled in Qamishlo and Hasaka, including airports and military bases, after negotiations. SAA no longer have authority, but some basic functions of the state like post office and administration still functioning.
– After the batallion of al-Tanf reached Palmyra and continued their advance to Damascus, people went to the streets. Some raised flags of SDF calling for joining the self-admnistration.
– In a press statement Mazlum Abdi (general command of SDF) declares a general amnesty urging everyone to cooperate as SDF works to protect the region.
# Manbij front
– SNA groups continue their attacks on Manbij, more aggressively than before. SDF made a statement anouncing they repelled all the attacks, SNA claimed they had taken some positions around Al-Arimah. SNA attacks count with air support from Turkish armed UAVs that are bombing the area.
– Tabqa Military Council repelled some attacks in the area they newly captured after the withdraw of the SAA.
# Other
– HTS groups take control of Homs as SAA and Irani froces withdraw. They opened Homs central prison releasing its detainees.
– Turkey deploys armored vehicles in Aleppo. Since the beginning of the operation Turkish state spokemans had been claiming that Aleppo belongs to Turkey
– There are a lot of “High rank” political talks with delegates of different countries, with a special conference in Doha with foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar an a UN special envoy starting today.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
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Updates 06-12-2024
So many things are happening today, it is difficult to summarize . We will share some relevant updates, always with the disclaimer that we are not an intelligence service but just some revolutionary anarchists following the situation from north-east Syria. We may get some things wrong, some information may be incorrect, but we are doing our best to update you all in the best way we can!
The main topic today is the general collapse of the SAA, with soldiers withdrawing from many different fronts, even publicly defecting in some areas. Lets look what is happening in different fronts:
# Western front
– The advance of HTS continues after taking control of Hama city, reaching the outskirts of Homs. Videos of attacks with Shaheen drones (HTS self-produced kamikazes) on SAA military posts in Homs are already spreading in social media.
– As HTS offensive move south, they also expand east and west, not only fighting but also making agreements with local groups. Like in Mahardah, west of Hama, where they negotiated with the local christian community the withdraw of SAA soldiers, or in Salamiya, east of Hama, where they made an agreement with Ismaeli community.
– They’re western advance is entering desert territory, where ISIS had been sustaining their insurgency. Is not clear if they will be confronted or welcomed by ISIS insurgent cells.
# Eastern front
– SAA soldiers withdraw from positions on the outskirts of Raqqa, with SDF moving to capture those territories to prevent further activity of ISIS.
– Similar scenarion in the city of Deir Ezzor, where aparently there has been some coordination to secure the area with SAA soldiers before they left their positions.
– At least one town situated 50 km south of Deir Ezzor, Al-quraya, seems to be under control of ISIS the moved in as SAA withraw.
– SDF took also control of the border crossing with Iraq of Albukamal, that has been a very important crossing point for the coordination and supply lines of differnet Iran proxy forces.
– SNA make a press statement announcing their operation against SDF in Manbij, urging civilians to stay away from military zones
# Southern fronts
– A new front open in the south as different rebel groups in Quneitra, Daraa and Sweida started to take military actions to confront the crumbling SAA. Allegedly, they created a common operation room to coordinate the fights with the regime soldiers.
– Several groups are storming check point, police commissaries and military barracks In some areas, SAA is reacting to those attacks, with bombardments and intermittent clashes in different places.
– Videos of soldiers of SAA publicly defecting and joining local defense militias are spreading in social networks, specially among the druze community of Sweida.
– Also in the south, but on the eastern south, the battalion of Al-Tanf is also moving forward. Known as Maghawir al-Thawra, this group was part of the FSA against SAA, but after the emergence of ISIS their main focus shifted to fight against the caliphate. They received training and weapons from US, as well as support in their operations against ISIS. In recent years they had been blocking routs of Iran weapon deliveries and making raids against captagon drug smuggling groups. Now, for the first time, they left their local area of operations and are clashing with SAA forces in Palmyra.
# Some notes on movements of International forces
– Allegedly, Israel is bombing chemical research facilities to avoid them to fall on hands of “Rebels”
– Allegedly, Russia is evacuating parts of their air force stationed in Syria
# Rumors
We can also share rumors of unconfirmed (but relevant) information. There are reports suggesting that a coup against the Assad government is taking place in Damascus. There are also reports allegedly from Mossad (Israeli intelligence) indicating that Assad left Syria, suggesting that he escaped to Iran.
# Early Evaluations
It is clear that no one have any faith in Assad government anymore. We feel confident to announce that this is the end of the regime. For many Syrians today will be a day of celebration. After almost 13 years of war, misery and exile, their dreams of a Syria without Bashar are coming true. In that sense, it is a day of celebration for us too.
But the end of the regime will probably be just the beginning of a new phase of conflict and instability, a very difficult one. Syria have become a ground for many military forces (state forces and non-state forces) to use violence and war to pursue their objectives without fear for the consequences. From the brutality of the Syrian regime and Russian mass bombings of civilian population, the inhumane and horrific massacres of the Islamic State or the genocidal and imperialist occupations of the Turkish Army and it’s proxies against the kurdish people and the Rojava Revolution.
More than a decade of war and suffering left wounds that won’t heal with the end of the Assad dynasty, and the following day will probably witness more bloodshed and atrocities. The declarations of SNA operation against Manbij will probably be the beginning of a brutal war of occupation as we already saw in 2018 in Afrin and 2019 in Serekaniye and Gire Spi. The future of Damascus still unclear, and the authoritarian Islamism of HTS will soon start to show it’s dark faces to the Syrian people, the faces that are not screened in CNN but that the people of Idlib, who had been protesting against their authoritarian rule for months, has been suffering and protesting againt.
Western powers will tacitly accept (and maybe even support) this mediatic and apparently diluted version of slafism, as they already did in Afghanistan. And those big moves will partly silance the massacres of Turkey in Manbij, letting the rouge NATO partner of middle east a bit lose in exchange for their loyalty in other affairs that are of higher priority for western agenda.
Anyway, this is already too long. If you made it here probably you have opinion on your own about the situation. And maybe now is not a time for words, but a time for action. The revolution in Rojava is, as always, under threat. Let’s celebrate the fall of the regime, but let’s keep building the new world we carry in our hearts.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
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Update 05-12-2024
# HTS on Hama and beyond
– After HTS offensive encircled the city of Hama and started the assault to capture it, SAA withdraw it’s forces. Al-Julani, leader of HTS, issued a video calling to not take revenge on captured Assad loyalists as HTS takes over administration of the city. HTS ordered police forces to continue their job waiting for new instructions from the “representatives of the ministery of interior of the Syrian Salvation Goverment”. HTS fighters also opened the central prison of Hama, setting prisoners free.
– There reports of HTS executing on the spot workers of the military hospital of Aleppo, as well as videos of other atrocities against SAA soldiers on the outskirts of Hama. Several pictures of combatants of HTS and SNA wearing patches of ISIS on their military uniforms are going around social media.
– A SAA convoy withdrawing from Hama towards the city of Homs was ambushed on the road, damaging vehicles and capturing surviving SAA soldiers.
– A big exodus of regime loyalists is fleeing from the city of Homs towards Damascus as the offensive of HTS continue moving south after capturing Hama. Stories of Syrian refugees from Aleppo and Hama escaping towards Tartus and Latakia are also shedding light on the booming “evacuation market”, where smugglers charge thousands of dollars for passage to different areas.
# Manbij, Shehba and Turkish moves
– SDF repelled more attacks of SNA fighters in Manbij area and apparently is pushing forward in the region of Hafsa, southern Manbij canton. SNA is sending tanks, heavy weapons and more fighters to that area, so bigger clashes are expected.
– Caravans of refugees from Shehba still trying to reach territories of the Self-Administration, but their convoys are halted by SNA raids. SDF published a statement denouncing a mass kidnap of refugees where SNA loaded more than 120 vehicles of refugees to unknown destination. Around 15.000 people was taken to unknown destination, with rumors of mass killing spreading on social media.
– Turkish state is starting to make open moves, with declarations of Erdogan about their involvement and intentions in Syria. An extended security meeting of turkish government took place today, and they will also take part on several international councils that will take place in the next days, pushing their agenda of kurdish genocide and otomanization of Syria.
# ISIS resurgence
– ISIS claims in a statement they took control of new areas south east to Homs city after clashes with the SAA. Daesh cells had increasing activity in the last moths, and with the current events they will probably push to expand their influence again.
# Semalka border open for journalists
– The self-administration issued an statement informing that Semalka border with Iraqui Kurdistan is open for journalists.
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04-12-2024 Situation update
HTS and Hama offensive
– HTS continue their operation to capture the city of Hama. Their advance had been slow and is facing heavy resistance from the counter offensive of the SAA. Heavy clashes in the northern outskirts of the city are taking place, as HTS forces advance east and west of Hama encircling the city while starting the assault on the north. SAA just started to use planes to bomb position of HTS advance.
– Military equipment and weapons captured by HTS are already being used in the clashes against the SAA. This includes tanks and other combat vehicles. Some planes (in rather poor condition, but still) have also been captured, as well as radars and other advanced components of the S300 and S400 (rusian made anti-aircraft systems). Numbers of weapons seized is difficult to estimate, as regime soldiers left behind full warehouses and military barracks.
# Shehba, Manbij and Tabqa
– The evacuation of the Shehba region continues. Today, several buses crossed from Til Rifat to the region of Manbij. The overall situation with regard to the transport of refugees is very hard, and it is hampered by raids from SNA and by Turkey’s continued shelling of supposedly safe areas (a number of villages in the cantons of Manbij and Tabqa were shelled today). More than 100.000 people is arriving to the areas of Manbij and Tabqa, with several institutions of the self-administration working to provide shelter and provisions. RIC published an explainer about the situation of this huanitarian crisis: https://rojavainformationcenter.org/2024/12/explainer-thousands-of-civilians-driven-out-of-shehba/
– Clashes in Manbij and Tabqa areas are getting more intense. SDF (Military Councils of Manbij and Tabqa, MMC TMC) repelled several attacks, killing and injuring fighters of SNA. Some sources suggested that SDF was advancing in an offensive towards Aleppo, but official statement of SDF denied such claims stating they are just defending their territories.
# Turkish and Russian Movments
– Videos of Turkish army vehicles entering Syria from Azaz, norh-west of Aleppo, spread in social media. Besides the constant attacks of UAVs (Unmaned Aerial Vehicles, military grade drones), this is Turkey’s first direct escalation in the ongoing situation. Direct intervention of Turkish Army may come with use of military planes like F-16, jets that Turkey has been using to bomb kurdish forces in Syria since the invasion of Afrin. Those NATO planes may be used to support not only SNA but also HTS, risking direct confrontation with Russian air force. Such escenario is at the moment especulation, but the stakes are high.
– Russia is moving their advanced navy from the port of Tartus, probably fearing attacks from the HTS, but also as a mechanism of deterrance. This is the only Russian naval base in the mediterranean sea, confering it very high strategical value. Today the air defenses next to that base shot down some drone attack.
# HTS media strategy
– The leader of HTS Abu Muhammad al-Julani made a public statement from outskirts of Aleppo calling locals not to leave their homes and the region, promissing protection from the Assad regime. Unlike other ilsamist leaders, al-Julani is playing a public and mediatic role, selling an image of moderate islam portraying HTS as liberators for the western public. Displaying such a public role while HTS is listed as a terrorist organization is a bold indicator of how much confidance they have, probably from pre-made agreements and promissed support of external forces.
# Rojava solidarity
– After a general call for mobilization, young revolutionaries all around Rojava had been recording and publishing statements showing their commitment to fight and defend their land, joining the ranks of SDF as popular militias of self defense. They call for a revolutionary people’s war against those who attack the revolution.
– Many different organizations and groups in several countries shared solidarity statements and organized demonstrations to support and defend Rojava in these difficult times. From here we also want to thank you all for those beautiful expressions of international solidarity!
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
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03/12/24
Short update on the current situation (and fast, so sorry for any mistakes 😅)
– HTS offensive continue advancing, consolidating their control of Aleppo city and advancing towards Hama. SAA started a counteroffensive at the doors of Hama, at this time very contested.
– HTS is heavily relaying on kamikaze FPV drones, something that until now was not so common in Syria. Clearly the lessons of Ukraine are spreading fast, with SNA and even SAA also using this weapon often. It simply had become the new reality of war in this Syria 2.0
– Sheik Mehksoud and Ashrafiye, kurdish neighborhood in Aleppo, are ready to defend themselves. The siege is creating big problems to access supplies (food, water, electricity). Light clashes with SNA combatants took place and some women fighter were captured, but seems HTS is avoiding to confront the Kurdish forces and continue their offensive on the SAA.
– SNA consolidated their occupation of Shehba, and is now mobilizing big convoys towards the front lines of Manbij.
– Some bombings already falling not just around Manbij but also in the front line of Kobane canton, next to the borders with Turky. A ground attack on Manbij area was repeled by the MMC (Manbij military Council). A major offensive of SNA on the Manbij region will probably start at any moment soon.
– Civilians are already deeply suffering from this the war, with numbers of IDPs (Internally Displaced People) already over hundred thousand. Apparently, and agreement reached between HTS and SDF promised safe passage to more than 75K people (mostly kurdish) from Shehba and Aleppo areas towards Manbij areas. Apparently SNA did not respect the agreement, delaying the convoy and forcing people to sleep on the street with freezing temperatures , with at least 3 deads. Improvised tents and refugee areas are being improvised around Manbij and Tabqa. It is a big humanitarian crisis, heyva sor as always is working to provide for those in need.
– Conflicts between HTS and SNA are reflected by some back and forth of press statements denouncing each other. SNA combatants had been looting properties and abusing civilians, with robbery, extortion and even executing at least 3 refugees from Shehba that were waiting to be evacuated. HTS arrested some SNA commanders and SNA reacted with accusations and threats, but later backed off a bit.
– SDF conducted an operation in Deir ezzor area with US support, recovering control over 7 villages on the eastern shore of the Eufrates river. Apparently, local population asked SDF intervention for security problems and risk of ISIS “sleeping” cells activity. SAA and Iranian militias had control over those villages, an after fierce clashes the operation concluded. (Yes, confusing… Also not so clear for us what happened there)
– a UN security council has been called to discuss the situation in Syria. As always, everybody is ‘deeply concerned’ about the situation. What a surprise eh?
Anyway, is late and we also need to sleep sometimes.
We may not be able to keep daily updates, especially if the situation escalate in different areas. But we will do our best to defend the revolution, behind the keyboards or on the front lines! ❤️🔥
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
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02/12/24
Update on Northern Syria: general situation and analysis
⚠️ Disclaimer: situation changes by hour and there’s a lot of unconfirmed or false information online. We base this update on verified information.
# General overview of main events
• HTS offensive has made a breakthrough in the first days toward east (Aleppo) and south (Hama) and slowed down on Dec 1st-2nd. Assad regime forces recaptured city of Hama and halted advance of HTS towards Homs city. Russian air forces carry out extensive bombing campaign, targeting HTS units but also civilian and military infrastructure in Idlib, Aleppo and along the route of HTS advance. Civilian and combatant casualties reported. Regime jets also carry out airstrikes, but much less. In Aleppo, in the kurdish district of Sheikh Maqsood the residents have prepared for self-defense.
• To the north from Aleppo, Şehba canton is been occupied by SNA. Thousands of people who lived in the refugee camps since the invasion of Afrin in 2018, are now being evacuated. SDF is organizing a humanitarian corridor to take out people from Aleppo and Şehba. No major clashes are reported between SDF and SNA for now, but some women comrades were captured by the enemy and were treated in a brutal way. Their fate remains unknown.
• In some other regions of DAANES artillery shelling and drone activity was present, but not above normal.
• There are reports of Iranian militias Hashd Ash-Shaabi moving into Syrian territory in Deir-Ez-Zor region in large numbers. In the same region, SDF and Deir-Ez-Zor military council make moves to take some towns and villages under regime control.
• ISIS forces in the desert of central Syria did not make major moves, but it is expected they’ll use the situation to the best of their ability.
# Political and other events
• SDF has called for a mass mobilization, for young people to join SDF and to be ready to repell the upcoming attacks on the liberated territory. It is a common expectation that escalation will grow and Turkish-backed factions will use the opportunity to attack western regions of DAANES, such as Minbij.
• There is not a lot of information about an attempted coup in Damascus which was initially reported. If such an attempt did happen, it seems to have not been successful.
• Egypt, Russia, UAE, Iran expressed support for Assad regime.
• DAANES (Democratic Autunomous Adminsitration of North and East Syria, a.k.a. Rojava) is in the middle of the new turmoil, with readiness to defend the advances of the women revolution. Number of refugees arriving to the western cantons, counted together with arrivals from Lebanon in past months can easily go over 200,000 people in the coming days and weeks.
# Analysis of possible outcomes
• In the first days of HTS offensive and SNA push against Şehba, as well as siege of Sheikh Maqsood, it is clear that Assad regime is in very difficult situation and it’s collapse seems possible. However, potential HTS rule will not be stable and will not resolve crucial issues of Syria that were created and fueled by the dictatorship of Bashar Al-Assad. Nevertheless, the fall of Assad might open a glimpse of chance for changes in the region, if Syrians – those in the country and those who will decide to come back after exile – will manage to claim original ideas of Syrian revolution.
• Major geopolitical forces such as Turkey, U.S. and Israel will benefit from offensive of HTS. HTS fits everyone as a force that is opposed to Iran, Assad and Russia. Given a chance to take up state-making in case of success and follow Taliban model, it is possible that main actors will exercise their influence in a possible future new government. It is possible that these states might give support to HTS, but are not interested in Syrian peoples independently deciding for themselves.
• Fall of Assad regime will be good for DAANES in various aspects, but poses major questions: A) Threat of ISIS taking up the opportunity and growing again while not having to fight Russia and Assad, although they will fight with HTS, B) Growing interference by U.S. in case of increased dependence on their protection against potential Turkish invasion, C) Finding new balance of forces in the region, D)Turkey expanding its direct control far deeper into Syria, and E) Religious fundamentalists of HTS taking over will bring sharp conflict with development and revolutionary achievements of society in NE Syria, first and foremost of women.
• Situation for Lebanon will be very difficult, as the country will be sandwiched between Israel and HTS-run part of Syria, and might create ground for escalation of internal conflicts. Hezbollah will be left without support from Iran.
• DAANES is offering a non-state solution based on self-governance, cultural, religious, gender and ethnical autonomy. Still, it gets the least recognition and international support.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤
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01/12/24
We can share a short update on the situation on Syria, since things are really getting wild. I share mostly facts, political analysis not in this message.
Those notes can be confusing for those not familiar with the situation here, feel free to ask!
+ Few days ago the ‘rebels’ of Idlid and surroundings, under military leadership of HTS (a new name of what once was al-qaeda in Syria) started a big offensive, breaking the siege of the SAA (Syrian Arab Army). The offensive broke throw their lines and started to advance to Aleppo (second biggest city of Syria). They are advancing fast and in multiple directions.
– Today the offensive goes on, taking control of big part of Aleppo city, with exception of some pockets under regime control and the northern Kurdish neighborhood of Sheik Makhsud.
– SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) made a big deployment in reaction to the threats, taking control of the road connecting Aleppo to Raqqa, also connecting with the region of Tal Rifat, where refugee camps for Afrin IDP where at risk of invasion by SNA.
– SNA (Syrian National Army, proxy of Turkey in Syria) also started an offensive, probably in coordination with HTS, and there are now clashes between SDF and SNA in the Raqqa-Aleppo road. For now those clashes are small, not comparable with the massive offensive of HTS against SAA.
– HTS is already attacking Sheik Mahksud in Aleppo, after most of the city fell under their control with SAA being overrun and withdrawing in mass. Kurdish forces are fighting back, ready to defend their ground.
– As for now, the ‘rebels’ also reached the city center of Hama and some northern areas of Homs. Seems there are also clashes in Damascus. There are rumors of a coup taking place, seem that some national television went off air after some (still confusing) clashes.
– other ‘rebel’ forces that were trained by US in al-Tanf (South Syria) are also moving, not clear where or why.
– Iranian forces (very present together with SAA) are being captured or expelled. Iran says this is a coup of Israel-Turkey-US. Diplomatic envoy of Iran will go to Turkey on Monday to discuss situation
– Since the beggining of the offensive Russia has been moving troops, leaving their ground positions in Tal Rifat (Kurdish areas) and bombing the jihadis together with Syrian Army planes from the sky.
+ As for now, seems clear that the SAA collapsed, ‘rebels’ are taking positions in several big cities and rumors that entire brigades are deserting defecting to the “rebels”. The situation is confusing and shifting.
– Iraq decided to close down borders with Syria, a lot of diplomatic talks and especulative journalism ongoing. Besides Iran there is a surprising radio silence. – Turkey is not saying much for now, neither Russia who just fired their general command of Syria.
+ NES (North East Syria, aka Rojava) is in the middle of all this, trying to defend the advances of the revolution and specially the Kurdish people of Afrin and Sheik Mehksud. SDF reacted very fast to the threats, seizing the road and avoiding the surrounding of Kurdish areas on this offensive. Is not clear how much HTS and SNA working together or they just syarted coordinated offensive, also not clear the role of ‘southern rebels’ trained by US. SDF have a defensive position, but taking control of some territories as SAA withdraw.
It’s messy, it’s confusing, it’s not clear what is going on. We will see how things develop. There are more things we could say but this message is already to long so I’ll stop here.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤