What follows is a compilation of updates from December 2024 shared by internationalist anarchists working from NES:

Updates 10-12-2024

# Eufrates region: Manbij and Kobane

– An alleged agreement of Turkey and US for SDF to withdraw from Manbij has been reported, referring to past agreements of YPG not to be allowed west of Euphrates. SDF continue fighting in Tabqa region, south of Manbij.

– As SNA takes control of Manbij region, videos of their atrocities spread over social networks, including brutal executions in the middle of the streets, even a raid and assassination of injured people in a hospital. A video of a checkpoint with SNA fighters wearing ISIS patches has even been screened on several television channels, and ISIS patches are seen in many videos circulating.

– Drones and artillery fire had been hitting Kobane canton, including Kobane city and Mishtenur (Strategical military point next to the city). Several civilians had been killed in those strikes. Also in Ain Issa, east of Kobane, several civilians had been killed in drone strikes

– SNA tried to cross the Qereqozah bridge between Manbij and Kobane. SDF repelled the attacks, killing dozens of SNA fighters and capturing some armored vehicles that SNA fighters left behind in their retreats.

# Syria aftermath

– Mohammed al-Bashir is now leading the transitional government of Syria in Damasc.

– UN envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen arrives to Damasc, calling for a process of unification of different factions, emphasizing that HTS is the dominant faction but is not the only one. UN also asks Israel for restrain in their security zones.

– Israel targeted more than 300 locations an military points, claiming it as the biggest air operation they ever launched, announcing they destroy all air defense capabilities of Syria. Israel “security zone” is also expanding, evacuating some villages in south-west Syria and deploying tanks at less than 30 km of Damascus.

# Political developments on NES

– DAANES is calling for a general ceasefire for all Syria to open space for dialog and a transition to a new democratic Syria. Solidarity committees are organizing demonstrations and protests in many different cities. The kurdish women’s movement is calling for a general day of mobilization for December 14.

– Allegedly, the ministry of defense of KRG received a request to deploy 5000 “peshmerga Roj” to support SNA factions. Allegedly, 200 peshmerga Roj equipped with heavy weapons are already being deployed in areas under SNA control. This comes as a political move from Turkey to spark intra-kurdish conflicts, exploiting the contradictions between ENKS (Syrian branch of KDP, Barzani-led political party in Basur, Iraq) and PYD (Major kurdish political party of the DAANES).

– More than a handred thousand refugees displaced from Aleppo and Shehba region are arriving to different areas in NES, mostly in Tabqa and Raqqa. Heyva Sor and DAANES local councils in different regions are doing everything in their hands to assist them, providing food, housing, blankets and medical assistance.

– SDF calls for US to fulfill their promises and intervene to prevent further attacks on Kobane.

# Analysis

The withdraw of SDF from Manbij is a painful concession. Many comrades lost their lives in the liberation of Manbij from the hands of ISIS, including the brave arab commander of YPG Abu Leila, also 8 internationalist fighters. As Erdogan stated many times, their next target is now Kobane, the proud city that became the turning point on the war against ISIS through and historic resistance. Kobane was also a key element for the internationalization of the Rojava revolution and the Kurdish question, becoming a symbol of resistance known to the whole world.

The dimension of Israel attack all over Syria is not just a deterrence action against the possibility of a hostile Syria, it is also a show of force a military capabilities to neighboring countries. It is also the perfect scenario for IDF to test their response capacity and air force at such a big scale, without fear of any repercussions since there is no one in Syria able to answer to such brutal attacks.

Turkey’s propaganda campaigns, with miss information and fabricated videos, aims to weaken SDF and destabilize the DAANES. Now they also try to spark intra-kurdish conflict, harvesting the investments they made for decades in the Barzani-led KRG, using all tools at their hands in this war. Even HTS is calling attention to that, publishing a press statement denouncing SNA’s fabrication of fake videos. But exposing their dirty methods is not enough to stop them, we need to take action in all fronts possible to put an end to their atrocities.

Syria is moving from the joy and celebrations after the fall of the regime, to the darkest hours it lived since the worst times of the war. Israel and Turkey are committing massacres and abusing their power to impose their agendas, taking advantage of the situation to feed their greed and expansionist ambitions. The revolution is under existential threat, and it is our duty, as internationalists and as revolutionaries, to make sure they can’t break this revolution. The world is descending into really dark paths, with war and oppression gaining ground all around. But there is also hope and revolutionary opportunities in those situations. It is partly in our hands to decide where we go from this point.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤

# Last minute updates

– Heavy clashes ongoing between SDF and SNA on Qereqozaq bridge connecting Manbij and Kobane right now. Threats of attacks on Kobane tonight.

– SDF left Deir Ezzor city allowing operations room of HTS to take control of the city. It also include the border crossing of Albukamal and the al-taym oil field in the Deir Ezzor desert. At the same time SDF announced their readiness to dialog with the provisional government.

– It is confirmed that the bombings that took place in Qamishlo yesterday was not conducted by Israel air force but by Turkey air force.

—————————-

Updates 09-12-2024

#Aftermath of the regime collapse

– The provinces of Latakia and Tartus are now also in full control of opposition forces, no regime loyalist area remains.

– Syrians in Libanon are going to the border crossing hoping to go back to their homes. Syrians in Turkey also going in mass, turkish state opening also the Yayladagi border crossing in Hatay.

– The Syrian opposition assigns Mohamed Al-Bashir, the Prime Minister of the Syria Salvation Government (SSG) [HTS political front], to form a transitional government. All position of this transition government are occupied by SSG members, apparently excluding the Syrian Interim Government (SIG)[SNA political front, Turkish aligned]. This might bring new contradictions between HTS and SNA/Turkey.

# Israel attacks

– Israel continues the bombing of strategical targets like armories, air defense systems and chemical factories of SAA in Homs, Hama, Tartus, Latakia and specially Damascus. They anounced on army radio more than 200 targets hits in Syria.

– There are several dead reported from some of those airstrikes, specially in southern Syria. Allegedly several members of the Makhlouf family (family of Hafez al-Assad wife, who are very very rich) were killed in airstrikes, also a local sheik of Sweida.

– IDF also started a ground offensive advancing from the Golan hights, allegedly to establish a “security corridor” or buffer zone, parachuting troops beyond the already occupied area.

# NES (Rojava and beyond)

– The fight in Manbij continued with heavy clashes during the night, with SDF recovering several positions after ambushing and pushing away SNA pockets. SDF and MMC anounced 4 shehids that had been buried today. Videos on social networks show dozens of bodies of SNA fighters spread on Manbij streets.

– Turkish drone strike the village on al-Mistriah, west of Ayn Issa, killing 15 civilians including 6 children, another one hit the area of Zirgan, in Til Temir / Dirbesiye front lines. Drone strikes had been ongoing in different regions under control of SDF, mostly against military targets.

– Together with drone strikes and artillery fire, SNA is also making some moves from the occupied region of Serekaniye-Gires Spi. They made an offensive on Sewami, 25 km west of Til Temir, that was repealed by SDF. An ANKA drone was shot down by SDF in Til Temir area.

– Unrest in Deir Ezzor citty, with protests and looting in some areas. Turkish aligned media spreads videos of protests calling for withdraw of SDF and demands for FSA to come. SDF aligned media shared interviews with tribal leaders calling for peace and standing with SDF.

– Recently “abandoned” positions of SAA in Qamsishlo and Haseke had also been heavily bombed by Israel, including the Qamishlo airport and other air defense systems locations. At least on person was injured in the airstrikes.

# Analysis

There are too many things ongoing in Syria, the developments are extraordinarily fast – and probably confusing for those not familiar with the situation. Every part of the conflict is racing to position themselves and get advantage from the political transition that will follow in Syria.

Regarding the situation in NES, the resistance in Manbij is critical. A collapse of the SDF in Manbij would had been follow by further attack of SNA, but the military proficiency displayed has been the best deterrence for further movements of SNA. It showed that SDF is not the SAA, and that blietzkrieg tactics of russhing with armored vehicles under artillery fire cover can send regime soldiers running away, but SDF is ready to hold positions and fight back.

For Turkey, Manbij is also very important, and it will be a decisive battle for the future of the SDF and the DAANES. This battle is proving that a well trained and prepared force, even if lightly equipped, can inflict massive losses to a much more numerous and well equipped force, even when they have total air supremacy. Every day that SDF holds any ground in Manbij is one more day that Turkey is being defeated, making SNA looking weaker. HTS took several big cities in days, SNA can’t take one middle sized city even when having full support of turkish airforce. But of course, as we said at the beginning, SDF is not SAA.

The attacks of Israel can also open new cans of worms, igniting old hates and legitimizing more extreme and fundamentalist positions inside HTS, overwhelming the moderate face that they had been working to present.

Many more things could be say, but this is already getting long so we stop here for today.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤

——————————

Updates 08-12-2024

# The end of the regime

– Bashar al-Assad left Syria and landed in Moscow as different opposition groups entered Damascus. People on the streets all around Syria celebrating the fall of the regime and tople down Assad statues.
– After talks with HTS Russia sees no danger to its 2 military bases in Syria: Hmeimim air base in Latakia  (often used to launch airstrikes against rebels) and a naval facility at Tartous. Losing Tartous would be a serious blow to Russia’s ability to project power in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Africa.

– Jubilant supporters of the revolt stormed Syrian embassies in a number of cities around the world, replacing Regime flags with the green, white and black flag thad had been flown throughout the war by his opponents.

#Manbij war

– SNA renewed  their offensive on Manbij with support of turkish artillery and airpower, aslo activating sleeping cells they previously infiltrated in Manbij. Several points under heavy clashes, but SDF recovering control of most of the area.
– Turkish warplanes bombed the Autonomous Administration building in centre of Manbij. They also bombed Qaraqozaq bridge severly damaging it, bridge that connects Manbij and Kobane over the Firat.
– Reports saying the city was abandoned by SDF was a result of information warfare developed by the Turkish state. Manbij remains contested as by Sunday evening, mostly with SNA expanding it’s influence western of Manbij and SDF holding ground on eastern part. Heavy clashes ongoing, with both forces alternating control over multiple counter-offensives.
– Heavy clashes between SNA-SDF outside Tabqa also reported.

# Other relevant events

– US promises to keep troups in Syria to stabilize and prevent ISIS re-emergence

– Israel bombing armories of the ‘de facto’ dissolved SAA to destroy advanced weapons
and occupies demilitarized zone in Golan Heights

– Drone strikes on Hano, Til Temir arearea and close Zirgan on the Dirbesiye road.

– 4 Sehid of SDF after an offensive action of ISIS cell in Shedadi area.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤

——————————-

Updates 07-12-2024

Once agains, so many things happen today. We will just share some important things.

# Collapse of the Syrian Regime

– SAA soldiers are defecting from all fronts. In some regions they simply run away, in some other they hold negotiations with other military forces before abandoning their positions. More than 1500 SAA soldiers crossed into Iraq throw Albukamal crossing.

– In western Syria, as SAA withdraw from their positions those are rapidly filled by HTS and different rebel groups in the north, by the south military operation room from Sweida-Daraa-Quneitra local forces, working more or less affiliated under the banner of FSA.

– Government forces evacuating official buildings of Damascus as rebel forces start to enter the city in the southern neighborhoods. Forces that started the offensive from Al-Tanf are entering from the north, with other groups claiming affiliation to FSA joining.

– Intelligence sources report contradictory information about the presence (or not) of Bashar al Assad in Damascus.

# SDF expansion of territories to protect the region

– In estern Syria, SDF is taking control of some positions alongside Eufrates river, but also local groups claiming affiliation to FSA are taking control of some positions. ISIS also took control of at least 1 position. In Til Temir area, maybe also in other areas, some SAA soldiers hold their military position after defecting and joining the ranks of SDF.

– SDF also takes control of the pockets that SAA controlled in Qamishlo and Hasaka, including airports and military bases, after negotiations. SAA no longer have authority, but some basic functions of the state like post office and administration still functioning.

– After the batallion of al-Tanf reached Palmyra and continued their advance to Damascus, people went to the streets. Some raised flags of SDF calling for joining the self-admnistration.

– In a press statement Mazlum Abdi (general command of SDF) declares a general amnesty urging everyone to cooperate as SDF works to protect the region.

# Manbij front

– SNA groups continue their attacks on Manbij, more aggressively than before. SDF made a statement anouncing they repelled all the attacks, SNA claimed they had taken some positions around Al-Arimah. SNA attacks count with air support from Turkish armed UAVs that are bombing the area.

– Tabqa Military Council repelled some attacks in the area they newly captured after the withdraw of the SAA.
# Other

– HTS groups take control of Homs as SAA and Irani froces withdraw. They opened Homs central prison releasing its detainees.

– Turkey deploys armored vehicles in Aleppo. Since the beginning of the operation Turkish state spokemans had been claiming that Aleppo belongs to Turkey

– There are a lot of “High rank” political talks with delegates of different countries, with a special conference in Doha with foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar an a UN special envoy starting today.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤

——————————-

Updates 06-12-2024

So many things are happening today, it is difficult to summarize . We will share some relevant updates, always with the disclaimer that we are not an intelligence service but just some revolutionary anarchists following the situation from north-east Syria. We may get some things wrong, some information may be incorrect, but we are doing our best to update you all in the best way we can!

The main topic today is the general collapse of the SAA, with soldiers withdrawing from many different fronts, even publicly defecting in some areas. Lets look what is happening in different fronts:

# Western front

– The advance of HTS continues after taking control of Hama city, reaching the outskirts of Homs. Videos of attacks with Shaheen drones (HTS self-produced kamikazes) on SAA military posts in Homs are already spreading in social media.
– As HTS offensive move south, they also expand east and west, not only fighting but also making agreements with local groups. Like in Mahardah, west of Hama, where they negotiated with the local christian community the withdraw of SAA soldiers, or in Salamiya, east of Hama, where they made an agreement with Ismaeli community.
– They’re western advance is entering desert territory, where ISIS had been sustaining their insurgency. Is not clear if they will be confronted or welcomed by ISIS insurgent cells.

# Eastern front

– SAA soldiers withdraw from positions on the outskirts of Raqqa, with SDF moving to capture those territories to prevent further activity of ISIS.
– Similar scenarion in the city of Deir Ezzor, where aparently there has been some coordination to secure the area with SAA soldiers before they left their positions.
– At least one town situated 50 km south of Deir Ezzor, Al-quraya, seems to be under control of ISIS the moved in as SAA withraw.
– SDF took also control of the border crossing with Iraq of Albukamal, that has been a very important crossing point for the coordination and supply lines of differnet Iran proxy forces.

– SNA make a press statement announcing their operation against SDF in Manbij, urging civilians to stay away from military zones

# Southern fronts

– A new front open in the south as different rebel groups in Quneitra, Daraa and Sweida started to take military actions to confront the crumbling SAA. Allegedly, they created a common operation room to coordinate the fights with the regime soldiers.
– Several groups are storming check point, police commissaries and military barracks In some areas, SAA is reacting to those attacks, with bombardments and intermittent clashes in different places.
– Videos of soldiers of SAA publicly defecting and joining local defense militias are spreading in social networks, specially among the druze community of Sweida.

– Also in the south, but on the eastern south, the battalion of Al-Tanf is also moving forward. Known as Maghawir al-Thawra, this group was part of the FSA against SAA, but after the emergence of ISIS their main focus shifted to fight against the caliphate. They received training and weapons from US, as well as support in their operations against ISIS. In recent years they had been blocking routs of Iran weapon deliveries and making raids against captagon drug smuggling groups. Now, for the first time, they left their local area of operations and are clashing with SAA forces in Palmyra.

# Some notes on movements of International forces

– Allegedly, Israel is bombing chemical research facilities to avoid them to fall on hands of “Rebels”

– Allegedly, Russia is evacuating parts of their air force stationed in Syria

# Rumors

We can also share rumors of unconfirmed (but relevant) information. There are reports suggesting that a coup against the Assad government is taking place in Damascus. There are also reports allegedly from Mossad (Israeli intelligence) indicating that Assad left Syria, suggesting that he escaped to Iran.

# Early Evaluations

It is clear that no one have any faith in Assad government anymore. We feel confident to announce that this is the end of the regime. For many Syrians today will be a day of celebration. After almost 13 years of war, misery and exile, their dreams of a Syria without Bashar are coming true. In that sense, it is a day of celebration for us too.

But the end of the regime will probably be just the beginning of a new phase of conflict and instability, a very difficult one. Syria have become a ground for many military forces (state forces and non-state forces) to use violence and war to pursue their objectives without fear for the consequences. From the brutality of the Syrian regime and Russian mass bombings of civilian population, the inhumane and horrific massacres of the Islamic State or the genocidal and imperialist occupations of the Turkish Army and it’s proxies against the kurdish people and the Rojava Revolution.

More than a decade of war and suffering left wounds that won’t heal with the end of the Assad dynasty, and the following day will probably witness more bloodshed and atrocities. The declarations of SNA operation against Manbij will probably be the beginning of a brutal war of occupation as we already saw in 2018 in Afrin and 2019 in Serekaniye and Gire Spi. The future of Damascus still unclear, and the authoritarian Islamism of HTS will soon start to show it’s dark faces to the Syrian people, the faces that are not screened in CNN but that the people of Idlib, who had been protesting against their authoritarian rule for months, has been suffering and protesting againt.

Western powers will tacitly accept (and maybe even support) this mediatic and apparently diluted version of slafism, as they already did in Afghanistan. And those big moves will partly silance the massacres of Turkey in Manbij, letting the rouge NATO partner of middle east a bit lose in exchange for their loyalty in other affairs that are of higher priority for western agenda.

Anyway, this is already too long. If you made it here probably you have opinion on your own about the situation. And maybe now is not a time for words, but a time for action. The revolution in Rojava is, as always, under threat. Let’s celebrate the fall of the regime, but let’s keep building the new world we carry in our hearts.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤

—————————————-

Update 05-12-2024

# HTS on Hama and beyond

– After HTS offensive encircled the city of Hama and started the assault to capture it, SAA withdraw it’s forces. Al-Julani, leader of HTS, issued a video calling to not take revenge on captured Assad loyalists as HTS takes over administration of the city. HTS ordered police forces to continue their job waiting for new instructions from the “representatives of the ministery of interior of the Syrian Salvation Goverment”. HTS fighters also opened the central prison of Hama, setting prisoners free.

– There reports of HTS executing on the spot workers of the military hospital of Aleppo, as well as videos of other atrocities against SAA soldiers on the outskirts of Hama. Several pictures of combatants of HTS and SNA wearing patches of ISIS on their military uniforms are going around social media.

– A SAA convoy withdrawing from Hama towards the city of Homs was ambushed on the road, damaging vehicles and capturing surviving SAA soldiers.

– A big exodus of regime loyalists is fleeing from the city of Homs towards Damascus as the offensive of HTS continue moving south after capturing Hama. Stories of Syrian refugees from Aleppo and Hama escaping towards Tartus and Latakia are also shedding light on the booming “evacuation market”, where smugglers charge thousands of dollars for passage to different areas.

# Manbij, Shehba and Turkish moves

– SDF repelled more attacks of SNA fighters in Manbij area and apparently is pushing forward in the region of Hafsa, southern Manbij canton. SNA is sending tanks, heavy weapons and more fighters to that area, so bigger clashes are expected.

– Caravans of refugees from Shehba still trying to reach territories of the Self-Administration, but their convoys are halted by SNA raids. SDF published a statement denouncing a mass kidnap of refugees where SNA loaded more than 120 vehicles of refugees to unknown destination. Around 15.000 people was taken to unknown destination, with rumors of mass killing spreading on social media.

– Turkish state is starting to make open moves, with declarations of Erdogan about their involvement and intentions in Syria. An extended security meeting of turkish government took place today, and they will also take part on several international councils that will take place in the next days, pushing their agenda of kurdish genocide and otomanization of Syria.

# ISIS resurgence

– ISIS claims in a statement they took control of new areas south east to Homs city after clashes with the SAA. Daesh cells had increasing activity in the last moths, and with the current events they will probably push to expand their influence again.

# Semalka border open for journalists

– The self-administration issued an statement informing that Semalka border with Iraqui Kurdistan is open for journalists.

—————————————-

04-12-2024 Situation update

HTS and Hama offensive

– HTS continue their operation to capture the city of Hama. Their advance had been slow and is facing heavy resistance from the counter offensive of the SAA. Heavy clashes in the northern outskirts of the city are taking place, as HTS forces advance east and west of Hama encircling the city while starting the assault on the north. SAA just started to use planes to bomb position of HTS advance.

– Military equipment and weapons captured by HTS are already being used in the clashes against the SAA. This includes tanks and other combat vehicles. Some planes (in rather poor condition, but still) have also been captured, as well as radars and other advanced components of the S300 and S400 (rusian made anti-aircraft systems). Numbers of weapons seized is difficult to estimate, as regime soldiers left behind full warehouses and military barracks.

# Shehba, Manbij and Tabqa

– The evacuation of the Shehba region continues. Today, several buses crossed from Til Rifat to the region of Manbij. The overall situation with regard to the transport of refugees is very hard, and it is hampered by raids from SNA and by Turkey’s continued shelling of supposedly safe areas (a number of villages in the cantons of Manbij and Tabqa were shelled today). More than 100.000 people is arriving to the areas of Manbij and Tabqa, with several institutions of the self-administration working to provide shelter and provisions. RIC published an explainer about the situation of this huanitarian crisis: https://rojavainformationcenter.org/2024/12/explainer-thousands-of-civilians-driven-out-of-shehba/

– Clashes in Manbij and Tabqa areas are getting more intense. SDF (Military Councils of Manbij and Tabqa, MMC TMC) repelled several attacks, killing and injuring fighters of SNA. Some sources suggested that SDF was advancing in an offensive towards Aleppo, but official statement of SDF denied such claims stating they are just defending their territories.

# Turkish and Russian Movments

– Videos of Turkish army vehicles entering Syria from Azaz, norh-west of Aleppo, spread in social media. Besides the constant attacks of UAVs (Unmaned Aerial Vehicles, military grade drones), this is Turkey’s first direct escalation in the ongoing situation. Direct intervention of Turkish Army may come with use of military planes like F-16, jets that Turkey has been using to bomb kurdish forces in Syria since the invasion of Afrin. Those NATO planes may be used to support not only SNA but also HTS, risking direct confrontation with Russian air force. Such escenario is at the moment especulation, but the stakes are high.

–  Russia is moving their advanced navy from the port of Tartus, probably fearing attacks from the HTS, but also as a mechanism of deterrance. This is the only Russian naval base in the mediterranean sea, confering it very high strategical value. Today the air defenses next to that base shot down some drone attack.

# HTS media strategy

– The leader of HTS Abu Muhammad al-Julani made a public statement from outskirts of Aleppo calling locals not to leave their homes and the region, promissing protection from the Assad regime. Unlike other ilsamist leaders, al-Julani is playing a public and mediatic role, selling an image of moderate islam portraying HTS as liberators for the western public. Displaying such a public role while HTS is listed as a terrorist organization is a bold indicator of how much confidance they have, probably from pre-made agreements and promissed support of external forces.

# Rojava solidarity

– After a general call for mobilization, young revolutionaries all around Rojava had been recording and publishing statements showing their commitment to fight and defend their land, joining the ranks of SDF as popular militias of self defense. They call for a revolutionary people’s war against those who attack the revolution.

– Many different organizations and groups in several countries shared solidarity statements and organized demonstrations to support and defend Rojava in these difficult times. From here we also want to thank you all for those beautiful expressions of international solidarity!

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤

———————————-

03/12/24

Short update on the current situation (and fast, so sorry for any mistakes 😅)

– HTS offensive continue advancing, consolidating their control of Aleppo city and advancing towards Hama. SAA started a counteroffensive at the doors of Hama, at this time very contested.
– HTS is heavily relaying on kamikaze FPV drones, something that until now was not so common in Syria. Clearly the lessons of Ukraine are spreading fast, with SNA and even SAA also using this weapon often. It simply had become the new reality of war in this Syria 2.0
– Sheik Mehksoud and Ashrafiye, kurdish neighborhood in Aleppo, are ready to defend themselves. The siege is creating big problems to access supplies (food, water, electricity). Light clashes with SNA combatants took place and some women fighter were captured, but seems HTS is avoiding to confront the Kurdish forces and continue their offensive on the SAA.

– SNA consolidated their occupation of Shehba, and is now mobilizing big convoys towards the front lines of Manbij.
– Some bombings already falling not just around Manbij but also in the front line of Kobane canton, next to the borders with Turky. A ground attack on Manbij area was repeled by the MMC (Manbij military Council). A major offensive of SNA on the Manbij region will probably start at any moment soon.

– Civilians are already deeply suffering from this the war, with numbers  of IDPs (Internally Displaced People) already over hundred thousand. Apparently, and agreement reached between HTS and SDF promised safe passage to more than 75K people (mostly kurdish) from Shehba and Aleppo areas towards Manbij areas. Apparently SNA did not respect the agreement, delaying the convoy and forcing people to sleep on the street with freezing  temperatures , with at least 3 deads. Improvised tents and refugee areas are being improvised around Manbij and Tabqa. It is a big humanitarian crisis, heyva sor as always is working to provide for those in need.

– Conflicts between HTS and SNA are reflected by some back and forth of press statements denouncing each other. SNA combatants had been looting properties and abusing civilians, with robbery, extortion and even executing at least 3 refugees from Shehba that were waiting to be evacuated. HTS arrested some SNA commanders and SNA reacted with accusations and threats, but later backed off a bit.

– SDF conducted an operation in Deir ezzor area with US support, recovering control over 7 villages on the eastern shore of the Eufrates river. Apparently, local population asked SDF intervention for security problems and risk of ISIS “sleeping” cells activity. SAA and Iranian militias had control over those villages, an after fierce clashes the operation concluded. (Yes, confusing… Also not so clear for us what happened there)

– a UN security council has been called to discuss the situation in Syria. As always, everybody is ‘deeply concerned’ about the situation. What a surprise eh?

Anyway, is late and we also need to sleep sometimes.

We may not be able to keep daily updates, especially if the situation escalate in different areas. But we will do our best to defend the revolution, behind the keyboards or on the front lines! ❤️‍🔥

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤

———————————-

02/12/24

Update on Northern Syria: general situation and analysis

⚠️ Disclaimer: situation changes by hour and there’s a lot of unconfirmed or false information online. We base this update on verified information.

# General overview of main events

• HTS offensive has made a breakthrough in the first days toward east (Aleppo) and south (Hama) and slowed down on Dec 1st-2nd. Assad regime forces recaptured city of Hama and halted advance of HTS towards Homs city. Russian air forces carry out extensive bombing campaign, targeting HTS units but also civilian and military infrastructure in Idlib, Aleppo and along the route of HTS advance. Civilian and combatant casualties reported. Regime jets also carry out airstrikes, but much less. In Aleppo, in the kurdish district of Sheikh Maqsood the residents have prepared for self-defense.

• To the north from Aleppo, Şehba canton is been occupied by SNA. Thousands of people who lived in the refugee camps since the invasion of Afrin in 2018, are now being evacuated. SDF is organizing a humanitarian corridor to take out people from Aleppo and Şehba. No major clashes are reported between SDF and SNA for now, but some women comrades were captured by the enemy and were treated in a brutal way. Their fate remains unknown.

• In some other regions of DAANES artillery shelling and drone activity was present, but not above normal.

• There are reports of Iranian militias Hashd Ash-Shaabi moving into Syrian territory in Deir-Ez-Zor region in large numbers. In the same region, SDF and Deir-Ez-Zor military council make moves to take some towns and villages under regime control.

• ISIS forces in the desert of central Syria did not make major moves, but it is expected they’ll use the situation to the best of their ability.

# Political and other events

• SDF has called for a mass mobilization, for young people to join SDF and to be ready to repell the upcoming attacks on the liberated territory. It is a common expectation that escalation will grow and Turkish-backed factions will use the opportunity to attack western regions of DAANES, such as Minbij.

• There is not a lot of information about an attempted coup in Damascus which was initially reported. If such an attempt did happen, it seems to have not been successful.

• Egypt, Russia, UAE, Iran expressed support for Assad regime.

• DAANES (Democratic Autunomous Adminsitration of North and East Syria, a.k.a. Rojava) is in the middle of the new turmoil, with readiness to defend the advances of the women revolution. Number of refugees arriving to the western cantons, counted together with arrivals from Lebanon in past months can easily go over 200,000 people in the coming days and weeks.

# Analysis of possible outcomes

• In the first days of HTS offensive and SNA push against Şehba, as well as siege of Sheikh Maqsood, it is clear that Assad regime is in very difficult situation and it’s collapse seems possible. However, potential HTS rule will not be stable and will not resolve crucial issues of Syria that were created and fueled by the dictatorship of Bashar Al-Assad. Nevertheless, the  fall of Assad might open a glimpse of chance for changes in the region, if Syrians – those in the country and those who will decide to come back after exile – will manage to claim original ideas of Syrian revolution.

• Major geopolitical forces such as Turkey, U.S. and Israel will benefit from offensive of HTS. HTS fits everyone as a force that is opposed to Iran, Assad and Russia. Given a chance to take up state-making in case of success and follow Taliban model, it is possible that main actors will exercise their influence in a possible future new government. It is possible that these states might give support to HTS, but are not interested in Syrian peoples independently deciding for themselves.

• Fall of Assad regime will be good for DAANES in various aspects, but poses major questions: A) Threat of ISIS taking up the opportunity and growing again while not having to fight Russia and Assad, although they will fight with HTS, B) Growing interference by U.S. in case of increased dependence on their protection against potential Turkish invasion, C) Finding new balance of forces in the region, D)Turkey expanding its direct control far deeper into Syria, and E) Religious fundamentalists of HTS taking over will bring sharp conflict with development and revolutionary achievements of society in NE Syria, first and foremost of women.

• Situation for Lebanon will be very difficult, as the country will be sandwiched between Israel and HTS-run part of Syria, and might create ground for escalation of internal conflicts. Hezbollah will be left without support from Iran.

• DAANES is offering a non-state solution based on self-governance, cultural, religious, gender and ethnical autonomy. Still, it gets the least recognition and international support.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤

———————————–

01/12/24

We can share a short update on the situation on Syria, since things are really getting wild. I share mostly facts, political analysis not in this message.

Those notes can be confusing for those not familiar with the situation here, feel free to ask!

+ Few days ago the ‘rebels’ of Idlid and surroundings, under military leadership of HTS (a new name of what once was al-qaeda in Syria) started a big offensive, breaking the siege of the SAA (Syrian Arab Army). The offensive broke throw their lines and started to advance to Aleppo (second biggest city of Syria). They are advancing fast and in multiple directions.

– Today the offensive goes on, taking control of big part of Aleppo city, with exception of some pockets under regime control and the northern Kurdish neighborhood of Sheik Makhsud.

– SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) made a big deployment in reaction to the threats, taking control of the road connecting Aleppo to Raqqa, also connecting with the region of Tal Rifat, where refugee camps for Afrin IDP where at risk of invasion by SNA.

– SNA (Syrian National Army, proxy of Turkey in Syria) also started an offensive, probably in coordination with HTS, and there are now clashes between SDF and SNA in the Raqqa-Aleppo road. For now those clashes are small, not comparable with the massive offensive of HTS against SAA.

– HTS is already attacking Sheik Mahksud in Aleppo, after most of the city fell under their control with SAA being overrun and withdrawing in mass. Kurdish forces are fighting back, ready to defend their ground.

– As for now, the ‘rebels’ also reached the city center of Hama and some northern areas of Homs. Seems there are also clashes in Damascus. There are rumors of a coup taking place, seem that some national television went off air after some (still confusing) clashes.

– other ‘rebel’ forces that were trained by US in al-Tanf (South Syria) are also moving, not clear where or why.

– Iranian forces (very present together with SAA) are being captured or expelled. Iran says this is a coup of Israel-Turkey-US. Diplomatic envoy of Iran will go to Turkey on Monday to discuss situation

– Since the beggining of the offensive Russia has been moving troops, leaving their ground positions in Tal Rifat (Kurdish areas) and bombing the jihadis together with Syrian Army planes from the sky.

+ As for now, seems clear that the SAA collapsed, ‘rebels’ are taking positions in several big cities and rumors that entire brigades are deserting defecting to the “rebels”. The situation is confusing and shifting.
– Iraq decided to close down borders with Syria, a lot of diplomatic talks and especulative journalism ongoing. Besides Iran there is a surprising radio silence. – Turkey is not saying much for now, neither Russia who just fired their general command of Syria.

+ NES (North East Syria, aka Rojava) is in the middle of all this, trying to defend the advances of the revolution and specially the Kurdish people of Afrin and Sheik Mehksud. SDF reacted very fast to the threats, seizing the road and avoiding the surrounding of Kurdish areas on this offensive. Is not clear how much HTS and SNA working together or they just syarted coordinated offensive, also not clear the role of ‘southern rebels’ trained by US. SDF have a defensive position, but taking control of some territories as SAA withdraw.

It’s messy, it’s confusing, it’s not clear what is going on. We will see how things develop. There are more things we could say but this message is already to long so I’ll stop here.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤