05-06/Jan/2025
# NES
Heavy clashes in Eufrates region
A massive SNA attack on the strategic hill near Tishrin dam was repelled by the SDF, inflicting heavy losses in SNA ranks. Air units of the SDF (drones) published videos of 2 armored vehicles and another military vehicle being destroyed. After the clashes, turkish planes bombed the area, damaging some of SDF’s armored vehicles.
SOHR numbers of the clashes
Over the last 2 days SOHR documented the deaths of 85 SNA militias and 16 SDF fighters.
Since the beginning of the fighting around Manbij city SOHR counts as killed: 25 civilians, including five women and two children; 203 Turkish-backed militiamen; 57 members of SDF. Reports on the ground suggest higher numbers.
Turkish bombings continue
Turkish campaigns of drone strikes and artillery fire continue targeting positions beyond the front lines, especially in Kobane countryside and in the occupied M4 strip between Ain Issa and Til Temir.
# Syria
Security operations continue
Security forces aligned with the transitional goverment continued security operations, mostly targeting people that had important roles with the old regime, like secret police and military personnel.
Local security committees
After the unrest of last week, local security committees are organizing checkpoints in multiple cities in coordination with HTS command. Residents stand guard outside shops and homes, armed with light weapons to fill the security vacuum.
Israels illegal occupation
Residents of Quneitra protested against the Israeli occupation of their homes and the lack of action from Syria’s new authorities and the international community. Israeli forces have demolished homes and prevented farmers from going to their fields in some areas. On at least two occasions, Israeli troops reportedly opened fired on protesters.
The United Nations has accused Israel of violating the 1974 ceasefire agreement by entering the buffer zone, but the new Syrian Govn. is in no rush to confront Israel.
# Foreign Policy
Turkey: HTS can guard ISIS
In an attempt to lessen the importance of the SDF’s presence, Turkish FM stated that the new Damascus administration can take over ISIS prisons.
US sanctions relief
US announced a sanction relief for Syria, issuing waivers to aid groups and companies providing essential services, such as water, electricity and other humanitarian supplies for next six months.
France support the kurds
After the visit of French FM to Damascus, French President Macron stated that “France will not abandon Kurdish freedom fighters in Syria.”
*** Analysis ***
The extreme instability of the last month seems to be slowing down. This is a dangerous time, where the international media attention starts to withdraw, forgetting once again what is happening in Syria. The heavy clashes of Manbij countryside are the new normality, as well as the intensified artillery attacks of Turkish army, as well as the constant drone strikes all over north east Syria. In the big cities of Western Syria the transitional government is tightening their control, with security operations targeting mainly old regime loyalists for now.
The unstable situation of the Kurdish neighborhoods of Sheik Mekhsud and Ashrafia in Aleppo is slowly (but silently) escalating tensions. SNA fighters dropped some explosive devices days ago before being shot by local defense forces. Today, a crowd chanting slogans aligned with the transitional government marched towards the kurdish neighborhoods. YPG forces fired warning shots in the sky to disperse the march, and for now it stopped there.
The local militias from Suwayda “Men of dignity” and “Mountain brigade” made statements rejecting sectarian factional armies and condemning the deadly clashes that took place recently in the south of Syria. It is not clear to us if the clashes where with HTS supporters (as we reported recently) or with old regime loyalist groups. Or maybe with both, reports seem confusing and our lack of trusted sources from southern Syria makes it difficult to get a good grasp of the situation.
The fatigue and exhaustion after more than a month of frantic activity are also weighing on everyone. In these times we can see the dynamics of war switching from sprint to marathon, where endurance and resilience become critical. Those who can’t withstand the pressure, those who break, will open small windows of opportunity for their enemies. SDF has repeatedly proven its strength in this long term race, so now is time to wait for enemy mistakes. As Sun Tzu wrote 15 centuries ago: “To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.”
Revolutionary greetings!