02/12/24

Update on Northern Syria: general situation and analysis

⚠️ Disclaimer: situation changes by hour and there’s a lot of unconfirmed or false information online. We base this update on verified information.

# General overview of main events

• HTS offensive has made a breakthrough in the first days toward east (Aleppo) and south (Hama) and slowed down on Dec 1st-2nd. Assad regime forces recaptured city of Hama and halted advance of HTS towards Homs city. Russian air forces carry out extensive bombing campaign, targeting HTS units but also civilian and military infrastructure in Idlib, Aleppo and along the route of HTS advance. Civilian and combatant casualties reported. Regime jets also carry out airstrikes, but much less. In Aleppo, in the kurdish district of Sheikh Maqsood the residents have prepared for self-defense. 

• To the north from Aleppo, Şehba canton is been occupied by SNA. Thousands of people who lived in the refugee camps since the invasion of Afrin in 2018, are now being evacuated. SDF is organizing a humanitarian corridor to take out people from Aleppo and Şehba. No major clashes are reported between SDF and SNA for now, but some women comrades were captured by the enemy and were treated in a brutal way. Their fate remains unknown. 

• In some other regions of DAANES artillery shelling and drone activity was present, but not above normal.

• There are reports of Iranian militias Hashd Ash-Shaabi moving into Syrian territory in Deir-Ez-Zor region in large numbers. In the same region, SDF and Deir-Ez-Zor military council make moves to take some towns and villages under regime control. 

• ISIS forces in the desert of central Syria did not make major moves, but it is expected they’ll use the situation to the best of their ability.

# Political and other events

• SDF has called for a mass mobilization, for young people to join SDF and to be ready to repell the upcoming attacks on the liberated territory. It is a common expectation that escalation will grow and Turkish-backed factions will use the opportunity to attack western regions of DAANES, such as Minbij. 

• There is not a lot of information about an attempted coup in Damascus which was initially reported. If such an attempt did happen, it seems to have not been successful.

• Egypt, Russia, UAE, Iran expressed support for Assad regime.

• DAANES (Democratic Autunomous Adminsitration of North and East Syria, a.k.a. Rojava) is in the middle of the new turmoil, with readiness to defend the advances of the women revolution. Number of refugees arriving to the western cantons, counted together with arrivals from Lebanon in past months can easily go over 200,000 people in the coming days and weeks.

# Analysis of possible outcomes

• In the first days of HTS offensive and SNA push against Şehba, as well as siege of Sheikh Maqsood, it is clear that Assad regime is in very difficult situation and it’s collapse seems possible. However, potential HTS rule will not be stable and will not resolve crucial issues of Syria that were created and fueled by the dictatorship of Bashar Al-Assad. Nevertheless, the  fall of Assad might open a glimpse of chance for changes in the region, if Syrians – those in the country and those who will decide to come back after exile – will manage to claim original ideas of Syrian revolution.

• Major geopolitical forces such as Turkey, U.S. and Israel will benefit from offensive of HTS. HTS fits everyone as a force that is opposed to Iran, Assad and Russia. Given a chance to take up state-making in case of success and follow Taliban model, it is possible that main actors will exercise their influence in a possible future new government. It is possible that these states might give support to HTS, but are not interested in Syrian peoples independently deciding for themselves.

• Fall of Assad regime will be good for DAANES in various aspects, but poses major questions: A) Threat of ISIS taking up the opportunity and growing again while not having to fight Russia and Assad, although they will fight with HTS, B) Growing interference by U.S. in case of increased dependence on their protection against potential Turkish invasion, C) Finding new balance of forces in the region, D)Turkey expanding its direct control far deeper into Syria, and E) Religious fundamentalists of HTS taking over will bring sharp conflict with development and revolutionary achievements of society in NE Syria, first and foremost of women.

• Situation for Lebanon will be very difficult, as the country will be sandwiched between Israel and HTS-run part of Syria, and might create ground for escalation of internal conflicts. Hezbollah will be left without support from Iran.

• DAANES is offering a non-state solution based on self-governance, cultural, religious, gender and ethnical autonomy. Still, it gets the least recognition and international support.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤