01/12/24
We can share a short update on the situation on Syria, since things are really getting wild. I share mostly facts, political analysis not in this message.
Those notes can be confusing for those not familiar with the situation here, feel free to ask!
+ Few days ago the ‘rebels’ of Idlid and surroundings, under military leadership of HTS (a new name of what once was al-qaeda in Syria) started a big offensive, breaking the siege of the SAA (Syrian Arab Army). The offensive broke throw their lines and started to advance to Aleppo (second biggest city of Syria). They are advancing fast and in multiple directions.
– Today the offensive goes on, taking control of big part of Aleppo city, with exception of some pockets under regime control and the northern Kurdish neighborhood of Sheik Makhsud.
– SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) made a big deployment in reaction to the threats, taking control of the road connecting Aleppo to Raqqa, also connecting with the region of Tal Rifat, where refugee camps for Afrin IDP where at risk of invasion by SNA.
– SNA (Syrian National Army, proxy of Turkey in Syria) also started an offensive, probably in coordination with HTS, and there are now clashes between SDF and SNA in the Raqqa-Aleppo road. For now those clashes are small, not comparable with the massive offensive of HTS against SAA.
– HTS is already attacking Sheik Mahksud in Aleppo, after most of the city fell under their control with SAA being overrun and withdrawing in mass. Kurdish forces are fighting back, ready to defend their ground.
– As for now, the ‘rebels’ also reached the city center of Hama and some northern areas of Homs. Seems there are also clashes in Damascus. There are rumors of a coup taking place, seem that some national television went off air after some (still confusing) clashes.
– other ‘rebel’ forces that were trained by US in al-Tanf (South Syria) are also moving, not clear where or why.
– Iranian forces (very present together with SAA) are being captured or expelled. Iran says this is a coup of Israel-Turkey-US. Diplomatic envoy of Iran will go to Turkey on Monday to discuss situation
– Since the beggining of the offensive Russia has been moving troops, leaving their ground positions in Tal Rifat (Kurdish areas) and bombing the jihadis together with Syrian Army planes from the sky.
+ As for now, seems clear that the SAA collapsed, ‘rebels’ are taking positions in several big cities and rumors that entire brigades are deserting defecting to the “rebels”. The situation is confusing and shifting.
– Iraq decided to close down borders with Syria, a lot of diplomatic talks and especulative journalism ongoing. Besides Iran there is a surprising radio silence. – Turkey is not saying much for now, neither Russia who just fired their general command of Syria.
+ NES (North East Syria, aka Rojava) is in the middle of all this, trying to defend the advances of the revolution and specially the Kurdish people of Afrin and Sheik Mehksud. SDF reacted very fast to the threats, seizing the road and avoiding the surrounding of Kurdish areas on this offensive. Is not clear how much HTS and SNA working together or they just syarted coordinated offensive, also not clear the role of ‘southern rebels’ trained by US. SDF have a defensive position, but taking control of some territories as SAA withdraw.
It’s messy, it’s confusing, it’s not clear what is going on. We will see how things develop. There are more things we could say but this message is already to long so I’ll stop here.
Revolutionary greetings! 🖤