02/12/24

Update on Northern Syria: general situation and analysis

⚠️ Disclaimer: situation changes by hour and there’s a lot of unconfirmed or false information online. We base this update on verified information.

# General overview of main events

• HTS offensive has made a breakthrough in the first days toward east (Aleppo) and south (Hama) and slowed down on Dec 1st-2nd. Assad regime forces recaptured city of Hama and halted advance of HTS towards Homs city. Russian air forces carry out extensive bombing campaign, targeting HTS units but also civilian and military infrastructure in Idlib, Aleppo and along the route of HTS advance. Civilian and combatant casualties reported. Regime jets also carry out airstrikes, but much less. In Aleppo, in the kurdish district of Sheikh Maqsood the residents have prepared for self-defense.

• To the north from Aleppo, Şehba canton is been occupied by SNA. Thousands of people who lived in the refugee camps since the invasion of Afrin in 2018, are now being evacuated. SDF is organizing a humanitarian corridor to take out people from Aleppo and Şehba. No major clashes are reported between SDF and SNA for now, but some women comrades were captured by the enemy and were treated in a brutal way. Their fate remains unknown.

• In some other regions of DAANES artillery shelling and drone activity was present, but not above normal.

• There are reports of Iranian militias Hashd Ash-Shaabi moving into Syrian territory in Deir-Ez-Zor region in large numbers. In the same region, SDF and Deir-Ez-Zor military council make moves to take some towns and villages under regime control.

• ISIS forces in the desert of central Syria did not make major moves, but it is expected they’ll use the situation to the best of their ability.

# Political and other events

• SDF has called for a mass mobilization, for young people to join SDF and to be ready to repell the upcoming attacks on the liberated territory. It is a common expectation that escalation will grow and Turkish-backed factions will use the opportunity to attack western regions of DAANES, such as Minbij.

• There is not a lot of information about an attempted coup in Damascus which was initially reported. If such an attempt did happen, it seems to have not been successful.

• Egypt, Russia, UAE, Iran expressed support for Assad regime.

• DAANES (Democratic Autunomous Adminsitration of North and East Syria, a.k.a. Rojava) is in the middle of the new turmoil, with readiness to defend the advances of the women revolution. Number of refugees arriving to the western cantons, counted together with arrivals from Lebanon in past months can easily go over 200,000 people in the coming days and weeks.

# Analysis of possible outcomes

• In the first days of HTS offensive and SNA push against Şehba, as well as siege of Sheikh Maqsood, it is clear that Assad regime is in very difficult situation and it’s collapse seems possible. However, potential HTS rule will not be stable and will not resolve crucial issues of Syria that were created and fueled by the dictatorship of Bashar Al-Assad. Nevertheless, the  fall of Assad might open a glimpse of chance for changes in the region, if Syrians – those in the country and those who will decide to come back after exile – will manage to claim original ideas of Syrian revolution.

• Major geopolitical forces such as Turkey, U.S. and Israel will benefit from offensive of HTS. HTS fits everyone as a force that is opposed to Iran, Assad and Russia. Given a chance to take up state-making in case of success and follow Taliban model, it is possible that main actors will exercise their influence in a possible future new government. It is possible that these states might give support to HTS, but are not interested in Syrian peoples independently deciding for themselves.

• Fall of Assad regime will be good for DAANES in various aspects, but poses major questions: A) Threat of ISIS taking up the opportunity and growing again while not having to fight Russia and Assad, although they will fight with HTS, B) Growing interference by U.S. in case of increased dependence on their protection against potential Turkish invasion, C) Finding new balance of forces in the region, D)Turkey expanding its direct control far deeper into Syria, and E) Religious fundamentalists of HTS taking over will bring sharp conflict with development and revolutionary achievements of society in NE Syria, first and foremost of women.

• Situation for Lebanon will be very difficult, as the country will be sandwiched between Israel and HTS-run part of Syria, and might create ground for escalation of internal conflicts. Hezbollah will be left without support from Iran.

• DAANES is offering a non-state solution based on self-governance, cultural, religious, gender and ethnical autonomy. Still, it gets the least recognition and international support.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤

01/12/24

We can share a short update on the situation on Syria, since things are really getting wild. I share mostly facts, political analysis not in this message.

Those notes can be confusing for those not familiar with the situation here, feel free to ask!

+ Few days ago the ‘rebels’ of Idlid and surroundings, under military leadership of HTS (a new name of what once was al-qaeda in Syria) started a big offensive, breaking the siege of the SAA (Syrian Arab Army). The offensive broke throw their lines and started to advance to Aleppo (second biggest city of Syria). They are advancing fast and in multiple directions.

– Today the offensive goes on, taking control of big part of Aleppo city, with exception of some pockets under regime control and the northern Kurdish neighborhood of Sheik Makhsud.

– SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) made a big deployment in reaction to the threats, taking control of the road connecting Aleppo to Raqqa, also connecting with the region of Tal Rifat, where refugee camps for Afrin IDP where at risk of invasion by SNA.

– SNA (Syrian National Army, proxy of Turkey in Syria) also started an offensive, probably in coordination with HTS, and there are now clashes between SDF and SNA in the Raqqa-Aleppo road. For now those clashes are small, not comparable with the massive offensive of HTS against SAA.

– HTS is already attacking Sheik Mahksud in Aleppo, after most of the city fell under their control with SAA being overrun and withdrawing in mass. Kurdish forces are fighting back, ready to defend their ground.

– As for now, the ‘rebels’ also reached the city center of Hama and some northern areas of Homs. Seems there are also clashes in Damascus. There are rumors of a coup taking place, seem that some national television went off air after some (still confusing) clashes.

– other ‘rebel’ forces that were trained by US in al-Tanf (South Syria) are also moving, not clear where or why.

– Iranian forces (very present together with SAA) are being captured or expelled. Iran says this is a coup of Israel-Turkey-US. Diplomatic envoy of Iran will go to Turkey on Monday to discuss situation

– Since the beggining of the offensive Russia has been moving troops, leaving their ground positions in Tal Rifat (Kurdish areas) and bombing the jihadis together with Syrian Army planes from the sky.

+ As for now, seems clear that the SAA collapsed, ‘rebels’ are taking positions in several big cities and rumors that entire brigades are deserting defecting to the “rebels”. The situation is confusing and shifting.
– Iraq decided to close down borders with Syria, a lot of diplomatic talks and especulative journalism ongoing. Besides Iran there is a surprising radio silence. – Turkey is not saying much for now, neither Russia who just fired their general command of Syria.

+ NES (North East Syria, aka Rojava) is in the middle of all this, trying to defend the advances of the revolution and specially the Kurdish people of Afrin and Sheik Mehksud. SDF reacted very fast to the threats, seizing the road and avoiding the surrounding of Kurdish areas on this offensive. Is not clear how much HTS and SNA working together or they just syarted coordinated offensive, also not clear the role of ‘southern rebels’ trained by US. SDF have a defensive position, but taking control of some territories as SAA withdraw.

It’s messy, it’s confusing, it’s not clear what is going on. We will see how things develop. There are more things we could say but this message is already to long so I’ll stop here.

Revolutionary greetings! 🖤