09-10/Jan/2025

# NES

Vigil on Tishreen dam
The residents and activists that traveled to Tishreen started a vigil at the Dam, where hundreds are keeping watch with great courage. The convoy was bombed before their arrival, killing at least 5 people and injuring 15. The demonstrators stressed that they would stand against against the invaders alongside with their children fighting in SDF.

France and US border security
Ilham Ahmad, co-chair of the Foreign Relations Department in the DAANES, said on Wednesday that US and France could secure the entire border area in northern Syria.
“As soon as France has convinced Turkey to accept its presence on the border, then we can start the peace process,” Ahmed said.

Repatriation of Iraqi families
A total of 192 Iraqi families (715 individuals) were brought from al-Hol camp back to Iraq. Al-Hol camp houses ~54,000 individuals, including ~20,000 Iraqis, most of whom are women and children. Al-Hol houses IDPs and families of ISIS fighters.

Germany talks with SDF
Germany’s special envoy to Syria, Stefan Schneck, discussed the future of the Kurdish population in Syria during a phone call with SDF Commander-in-Chief, Mazloum Abdi.
Both he and Abdi discussed the possibility of integrating Kurdish rights into Syria’s national framework. He emphasized that the new Syrian administration had already acknowledged the importance of this issue.

# Syria

Security chaos in Manbij
Residents of Manbij have voiced growing concerns over escalating security chaos and widespread thefts attributed to the Turkish-backed SNA. Residents are being terrorized, and their property is being looted.

Demilitarisation of the South
The Military Operations Command of HTS issued a directive requiring all weapon holders in Quneitra’s countryside (southern Syria), both military and civilian, to surrender their weapons within 24 hours. Southern Quneitra is witnessing an incursion by the Israeli forces.

Violence against Alawites
Thousands of Alawites mourned three civilians killed by foreign islamists of the country’s new authorities. Since Assad’s ouster, violence against Alawites, long associated with his clan, has soared, with the media “al monitor” recording at least 148 killings.

Israels invasion
Israeli forces detained a Syrian lawyer and a French journalist in Quneitra province, as well as a team of journalists from the Jumhuriya.net news website, confiscating cameras and other equipment.
Syrian Ambassador to the UN, Qusai al-Dahak, called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from recently occupied areas in Syria and an end to their aggressive actions against its people.

Turkeys control over Afrin
A Turkish-appointed governor in Afrin region reportedly refused to transfer the management of local councils to a delegation from HTS government, arguing that the matter would be discussed with the new Syrian administration at a later date.
Until then, the management of Afrin would remain under Turkey’s direct oversight.

# Foreign Policy

Turkey arrests kurdish politicians
The co-mayors of Akdeniz and 4 more representatives of the DEM party have been arrested. The accusations had not been reported since are declared secret, the lawyers are not allowed to get in contact with the arrested for at least 24h.

Iran blames Russia
Iranian General Behrouz Ethbati accuses Russia of lying to Tehran about bombing Syrian rebels, saying that “its planes were targeting the desert instead of the opposition forces.” Ethbati blamed Russia for the fall of Bashar al-Assad, explaining that Russian forces did not attack the opposition and disabled radars during the raids.

# Analysis

The civilian vigil on Tishreen dam is an example of the readiness of the people in north-east Syria to defend their land, using a wide diversity of tactics. For several years, militants of northern Syria have been discussing the importance of a resistance inspired on the ideas of “revolutionary people’s war”. The ongoing protest in Tishreen, together with the other vigils taking place in the Syrian-Turkish border next to the cities of Qamishlo and Kobane, are an example of civil resistance against occupation. Those actions don’t go in contradiction with the military defense of SDF, instead they complement each other, combining diverse forms of resistance towards a common aim.

The International Coalition is also making some interesting steps, with French army starting to deploy alongside US forces in the border with Turkey and other locations. France has been an important partner of the International Coalition since the beginning, and this is probably related to the fears of French State to foreign ISIS fighters, many of them with French nationality. If HTS or Turkey take control of the prisons currently under control of SDF, that hold thousands of ISIS fighters captive, those prisoners could find their way back to France and endanger the security of many European countries. This is also a preventive move of France, taking precautions before Donald Trump, who declared his intentions to withdraw US soldiers from Syria, takes over the white house.

The Turkish appointed governor of Afrin refused the call of HTS to transfer the management over the local council to an HTS delegation. This reflects how, even if Turkey and HTS are cooperating in many areas, they still have conflicts an power struggles. Those kind of contradictions can evolve to more bitter relations if Turkey refuse to give up control of the regions they occupied in Syria. Contradictions in the relations between Iran and Russia are also surfscing, with declarations of an Iranian commander blaming Russia for not really fighting against the rebel offensive that sparked the collapse of the Regime.

All authoritarian powers, all centralized governments, have always one aim: to accumulate more power. This brings them to cooperate with each other when they can benefit from it, but also to constantly compete and clash against each other. Exploiting these contradictions is necessary to undermine their hegemony. Pushing them to clash on each other can create opportunities for revolutionary forces, but only when those forces are well organized in strong revolutionary movements can really seize those opportunities and develop alternative models against capitalism modernity.

Revolutionary greetings!

07-08/Jan/2025

# NES

Heavy clashes in Eufrates region
SDF resisted attacks at Tishreen Dam, destroying 12 military vehicles.
A turkish airstrikes struck an internet tower near Kobane, 3 SDF tanks and the Tishreen Dam infrastructure. These attacks coincide with ground attacks by Turkish-backed SNA mercenaries. Intense clashes are ongoing.

Tishreen Dam about to break
The strategically important dam is at risk of collapsing. Repairs have been impossible during the ongoing bombardments by turkish drones. The Dam is about to break apart, which would release a flood of 2 billion m³ of water that would cause a massive humanitarian and ecological disaster. It would also cut off the SDF forces in Manbij countryside, as Qereqozah and Tishreen are the only brides over the Eufrates near Manbij.

Civilian resistance in Tishreen
The DAANES is asking the International Coalition and the UN to step in to protect the Tishreen dam. A civilian convoy from different cantons of North Syria went there to organize a protest and defend the dam. The convoy was hit by a Turkish drone in their way, but they continued and arrived to the dam.

Kongra Star women’s forum
Kongra Star hosts women’s forum in Heseke under the slogan “With the unity of women, we will build a democratic Syria”. More than 500 women from Kurdish, Arab, Alawite Armenian and other nations proclaimed: “We want women inside the new constitution drafting committee, plus women’s representation guaranteed as >50% of membership in government institutions.”

SNA protests for salaries
Turkish-backed SNA militias launch protests in Manbij over several months of unpaid salaries, indicating deepening financial crisis and growing internal collapse.

Turkeys necropolitics
Turkey halts delegation to bring the bodies of martyred journalists Nazım Daştan und Cihan Bilgin back to their birth places in Bakur. Turkey uses the bodies of dead kurdish activists as political strategy, as a form of necropolitics.

# Syria

Power ships for electricity
Turkish and Qatari power ships are send to Syria, which could generate 800mw of power. This would increase overall power by 50%. This comes as US has lifted sactions against Syria for the next 6 months.

Syrian airports
Damascus International Airport resumes operation, first flight going to UAE. Soon, flights will operate between Damascus and Baghdad, as well as Erbil. Aleppo Airport is almost operational. Qamishli and Deir ez-Zor airports remain out of service due to extensive damage caused by the former regime before its withdrawal.

# Foreign Policy

Iraq border wall
Iraq build a border wall stretching 400km of the 615km long Iraqi-Syrian border. Iraqi head of defence ensured that the Iraqi border with Syria is safe due to intelligence operations, pursuit of sleeper cells, and continuous airstrikes.

Tensions Israel-Turkey
The Nagel Committee of the Israeli government issued a report warning that the country should prepare for a potential war with Turkey. Their report states that Israel should prepare by increasing military budget and obtaining advanced weaponry, air defence systems and bolstering border security.

France on sanctions and ISIS
French FM says sanctions on Syria could be lifted to support the rebuilding of the country, but only if progress is made in womens rights.
France and EU are deeply concerned about the potential resurgence of ISIS and its threat to Europe. France views the Kurds as key allies in countering the ISIS threat.

Turkey on Kurds and ISIS
Turkish FM: “Turkey will launch a military campaign against the Kurds in Syria if they dont comply with Ankaras demands”. “Turkey is capable of running ISIS prisons if the Syrian administration cannot do so”.

DEM Party delegations
Following Ocalan’s recommendation, the Imrali delegation of the Equality and Democracy of Peoples Party continues to meet with major Turkish political parties, now having met with CHP.

# International Solidarity

Solidarity from Western Sahara
Sahrawi Solidarity Summit that is taking place in a refugee camp in southern Algeria sends solidarity greetings to Rojava.

# Analysis

As SNA weakens, the Turkish army is increasing their role in the Tishreen front lines. Drone strikes are targeting not just military positions, but also SDF supply lines and even the civilian convoy that traveled there. More and more armored vehicles are being supplied to the Turkish proxies, combined with increasing air support from drones and war planes. The resistance of the Tishreen dam is at the moment the warmest front line of all Syria, a decisive battle for the resistance of the DAANES is being fought there.

The reiterated threats of Turkey about a total invasion in Northern Syria are now coming with claims to control ISIS prisons. This could be extreamly dangerous, considering how many foreign ISIS fighters could reorganize their cells with Turkish help. Many of them were aided by Turkish state to cross the border to Syria to join ISIS 10 years ago, and Turkey could now use them as leverage to create instability and chaos in many countries.

The Israel “Committee for the Evaluation of the Defense Establishment Budget and the Balance of Power”, led by former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel, is highlighting the tensions between Israel and Turkey. These two states are competing for hegemony in middle east, and their tensions can become more and more central as both states expand their influence in Syria. How the transitional goverment balances their occupations (Turkey in the north, Israel in the South) will affect also what role the DAANES and the kurdish liberation movement will play in Syria.

Revolutionary greetings!

05-06/Jan/2025

# NES

Heavy clashes in Eufrates region
A massive SNA attack on the strategic hill near Tishrin dam was repelled by the SDF, inflicting heavy losses in SNA ranks. Air units of the SDF (drones) published videos of 2 armored vehicles and another military vehicle being destroyed. After the clashes, turkish planes bombed the area, damaging some of SDF’s armored vehicles.

SOHR numbers of the clashes
Over the last 2 days SOHR documented the deaths of 85 SNA militias and 16 SDF fighters.
Since the beginning of the fighting around Manbij city SOHR counts as killed: 25 civilians, including five women and two children; 203 Turkish-backed militiamen; 57 members of SDF. Reports on the ground suggest higher numbers.

Turkish bombings continue
Turkish campaigns of drone strikes and artillery fire continue targeting positions beyond the front lines, especially in Kobane countryside and in the occupied M4 strip between Ain Issa and Til Temir.

# Syria

Security operations continue
Security forces aligned with the transitional goverment continued security operations, mostly targeting people that had important roles with the old regime, like secret police and military personnel.

Local security committees
After the unrest of last week, local security committees are organizing checkpoints in multiple cities in coordination with HTS command. Residents stand guard outside shops and homes, armed with light weapons to fill the security vacuum.

Israels illegal occupation
Residents of Quneitra protested against the Israeli occupation of their homes and the lack of action from Syria’s new authorities and the international community. Israeli forces have demolished homes and prevented farmers from going to their fields in some areas. On at least two occasions, Israeli troops reportedly opened fired on protesters.
The United Nations has accused Israel of violating the 1974 ceasefire agreement by entering the buffer zone, but the new Syrian Govn. is in no rush to confront Israel.

# Foreign Policy

Turkey: HTS can guard ISIS
In an attempt to lessen the importance of the SDF’s presence, Turkish FM stated that the new Damascus administration can take over ISIS prisons.

US sanctions relief
US announced a sanction relief for Syria, issuing waivers to aid groups and companies providing essential services, such as water, electricity and other humanitarian supplies for next six months.

France support the kurds
After the visit of French FM to Damascus, French President Macron stated that “France will not abandon Kurdish freedom fighters in Syria.”

  *** Analysis ***

The extreme instability of the last month seems to be slowing down. This is a dangerous time, where the international media attention starts to withdraw, forgetting once again what is happening in Syria. The heavy clashes of Manbij countryside are the new normality, as well as the intensified artillery attacks of Turkish army, as well as the constant drone strikes all over north east Syria. In the big cities of Western Syria the transitional government is tightening their control, with security operations targeting mainly old regime loyalists for now.

The unstable situation of the Kurdish neighborhoods of Sheik Mekhsud and Ashrafia in Aleppo is slowly (but silently) escalating tensions. SNA fighters dropped some explosive devices days ago before being shot by local defense forces. Today, a crowd chanting slogans aligned with the transitional government marched towards the kurdish neighborhoods. YPG forces fired warning shots in the sky to disperse the march, and for now it stopped there.

The local militias from Suwayda “Men of dignity” and “Mountain brigade” made statements rejecting sectarian factional armies and condemning the deadly clashes that took place recently in the south of Syria. It is not clear to us if the clashes where with HTS supporters (as we reported recently) or with old regime loyalist groups. Or maybe with both, reports seem confusing and our lack of trusted sources from southern Syria makes it difficult to get a good grasp of the situation.

The fatigue and exhaustion after more than a month of frantic activity are also weighing on everyone. In these times we can see the dynamics of war switching from sprint to marathon, where endurance and resilience become critical. Those who can’t withstand the pressure, those who break, will open small windows of opportunity for their enemies. SDF has repeatedly proven its strength in this long term race, so now is time to wait for enemy mistakes. As Sun Tzu wrote 15 centuries ago: “To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.”

Revolutionary greetings!

03-04/Jan/2025

# NES

Manbij Front
SDF repelled a massive attack, killing 72 jihadist fighters. 11 SDF soldiers were also killed. Turkey continues to bomb the area and the already heavily damaged Tishreen Dam.

SNA order to kill
Allegedly, an internal information letter was sent to military police of SNA and several of their militias. The letter calls on them to execute any traitor attempting to defect to the enemy or caught trying to flee their area.

Turkey-Syria borders to HTS
Control of the Hammam border crossing between Turkey and Syria in Jindires area, in occupied Afrin, has been handed out to HTS as part of agreements to normalize the situation with the new administration in Damascus.

# Syria

Murderous past of justice minister
Shadi Al-Waisi was recently appointed as minister of justice. He has been identified in a video from Idlib in 2015, this video has been verified. In the video a woman is executed with a head shot in the middle of the street by armed men after Shadi Al-Waisi reads a “judicial” sentence from a smartphone.

Syrias education system
Syria’s new Ministry of Education has published 12 new documents reshaping the country’s education system. They are pushing a religiously driven worldview on what was once the Middle East’s most secular nation.

Tensions in Suwayda
Recent clashes between armed factions in Suwayda involving the armed group “Men of dignity” and another group that is apparently aligned with HTS took place. They left at least 4 deads. Protests followed the incident, some claiming support for an HTS goverment some against it. Some also denounced the sunni-islamist biased changes of educational curriculum.

Clashes on the Lebanese border
Clashes with the Lebanesse army broke out next to a blocked border crossing between Syria and Lebanon, with at least 1 Lebanese soldier badly injured. The Lebanese army claims they shot in the air as warning after a bulldozer moved to reopen the border-crossing, and armed men responded by firing at their positions. Some reports claim the armed men to be HTS fighters, other suggest smuggling networks. Allegedly, clashes resumed again later.

HTS security operations
HTS military personal conducted several raids and security controls after the Alawites protest last week. Some of those raids are evolving to clashes after facing armed resistance, allegedly from old regime loyalist. The Syrian Observatory of Human rights (SOHR) is reporting more than 100 arrested, some reports suggest summary executions of many of them.

# Foreign Policy

French and German FM in Damascus
Ms Baerbock and Mr Barrot are the first european FMs to visit the new governemnt in Damascus. They explained that they can see a renewed relationship between Europe and Syria, but under the condition of gender equality and protection of minorities. HTS officials receiving them refused to shake the hand of the German FM.

 # Analysis

The recent handover of strategical border-crossing points in Afrin to HTS is a very relevant development, it shows the will of Turkey to sacrifice SNA militias in exchange for better relations with HTS. Those border crossing points are a big source of tax revenue for the militias that control it, cutting down their access to funds and giving them to HTS will not just improve their economical situation but also reinforce the centralized control that the HTS transitional goverment is attempting. And of course, Turkey is expecting HTS to not forget that they are helping them with that, gaining a better diplomatic position in future negotiations.

The visit of the French and German foreign ministers to Damascus indicates that Europe is willing to accept the transitional goverment as legitimate respresentation of Syria. The video with the akward moment when Baerbock offers her hand and the reception delegation and they refuse to shake her hand, has been circulating a lot. It is a clear indication of the misogynist approach that this transitional goverment has. At the same time, they orchestrated a press conferance with an unveiled women talking on behalf of the White Helmets, a rescue organization with close ties with HTS and Turkey. This is clearly a move for media spectacle, since any pictures ever seen of women working with White helmets has been always with veil and gloves, and always as having an auxiliar role. This adds to other examples of HTS tokenizing women to appear moderate and aligned with inclusive values, but it is clearly nothing else than a facade.

Revolutionary greetings!

01-02/Jan/2025

“I am here because my conscience could not accept what I saw with my own eyes. When you choose the path, you have to walk it at your own risk. The way is us, and we are the way.” — Cîhan Bilgin

# NES

Clashes in Manbij countryside
Heavy clashes in Manbij countryside continued with intense air support from Turkish army. SDF is holding ground against SNA offensives, destroying some armored vehicles and inflicting heavy loses on SNA troops. SDF shot down a turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone. YPJ destroyed a communication tower.

Damages to Tishreen Dam
Turkish and SNA attacks have left the Tishreen Dam inoperable, with latest figures estimating that at least 413,000 people in Manbij and Kobane area have been deprived of electricity and water for the past 3 weeks. Strikes on the dam have damaged turbines, cut essential cables, caused leakages & resulted in power outages.

Turkish drone strikes
Among other attacks, turkish drones targeted civilian homes in Gire Spi country side. A turkish drone strike in the kurdish controlled area of Aleppo destroyed the only sugar factory in the region.

New US base in Kobane
The US army is building a new base in the city of Kobane. Cement blocks, premade rooms, surveillance cameras and other equipement is being installed.

# Syria

SDF meetings with HTS
Official delegation of SDF command met with HTS command to discuss about the relation of SDF with the new Syrian army being formed. Mazlum Abdi stated that an agreement was not reached but that the negotiations are ongoing. Ahmed al-Sharaa declared “SDF requested to be integrated as an specific corps within the new army, also to determine a percentage of the resources it controls, especially oil, to remain in NE Syria. These demands were rejected by the General Command, but there is a proposal being studied to include elements of the SDF”.

HTS delegation to Saudi Arabia
A Syrian official delegation to Saudi Arabia, led by freshly appointed Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaybani, Defense minister Murhaf Abu Qasra and Intelligence chief Anas Khattab, landed in Riyadh, marking their first official trip abroad.

‘Joint forces’ leave SNA
The “Joint Forces”, a coalition of the two main facitons of SNA ‘Hamza division’ and ‘Sultan Suleyman Sha division’, announced their withdrawal from the SNA to join the new Syrian Army under the new ‘defense ministry’.

Druze demand federalism
The Druze in Suwayda have intercepted an HTS convoy from entering Suwayda, and they were forced to return to Damascus.
Commander of Druze operations: “We will not allow any faction, regardless of the number of its members, to enter Suwaida, and we will demand federalism if we are subjected to any aggression or anything is imposed on us”

New insurgent group?
Statements about a new group calling itself “Syrian Popular Resistance” appeared in Iran and Russian linked media. They vow they will fight HTS in retaliation for the attacks on minorities, calling for a “free Syrian Arab republic” with a sectarian religious language.

# Foreign Policy

Meeting between DEM and MHP
The meeting between the (kurdish) DEM Party’s İmralı delegation and MHP leader (far-right) Devlet Bahçeli took place in Turkey. The meeting followed Abdullah Öcalan’s recommendation for dialogue with political parties. DEM party said that the meeting went well.

Iraq forbids kurdish Organisations
With the start of the new year, Iraq issued a new law forbidding “all organisations connected to the PKK” due to a request by Turkey.
This affects among others Free Women Associtation RJAK, Niwêger and Merziye foundations for arts together with the production company of Jin TV. All assets of these organisations have been seized.

US-Syria economic license
Work is underway in US institutions to issue a “temporary” license valid for one year, allowing economic transactions that were previously prohibited under U.S. sanctions on Syria, while sanctions will not be lifted.

ISIS calls for attacks
ISIS made a call to its members to carry out attacks in Europe, the US and Israel, calling for action during New Year celebrations. “Prepare your belts, silencers, knives, and explosives” one message exhorts.

*** Analysis ***

We start 2025 with many things going on. January will be a challenging month, with a race of different actors to strengthen their positions, both in the military field as well as in diplomatic influence. Al-Sharaa is putting his HTS trusted circles in key positions in the goverment. You can read some of their (newly collected) biographies on wikipedia, partly documenting their past activities as “brave jihadist fighters” of al-Nusra. How much they are just playing a theater for western audiences, or how much they really moderated themselves in exchange for power in a Nation-State, is something that will be more clear in the next months.

The statements of an insurgent “popular resistance movement”, with a certain iranian flavour and with russian fringe media echoing it, can contribute to new waves of instability if they come backed up with actions. The druze community in the south also seems unwilling to cooperate with HTS transitional government, contributing to a mosaic of actors that question HTS’ proclaimed power. Meanwhile, many people in Syria’s western cities are going out to the streets, fixing roads and painting murals, reinforcing bonds of solidarity and mutual aid among neighbors. This networks of civic organizing can easily flourish in local committees and popular councils, as they already did in the early years of the Syrian revolution. How much HTS government will give space to these local initiatives, and how much these grassroots movements will confront the authoritarian steps of HTS, is something that will be a determinant for the future of Syria.

The press statement of the ‘joint forces’ leaving the SNA coalition is an important step, moving towards a generalized meltdown of the Turkish proxy forces. It is not clear how much it is an open defection or maybe a ‘cover’ operation of Turkish intelligence, aiming to ‘infiltrate’ some of their trusted agents in the new Syrian Army. Still, together with many local reports of groups and fighters defecting to go back home, plus the big amount of losses that the resistance of SDF is inflicting against their attacks, all this is making SNA more an more unable to hold their ground. How much Turkey will try to keep SNA together or will try to invade directly if things don’t play as they want remains still to be seen.

On the other side, the ongoing talks to integrate SDF in that same new Syrian Army are an uncomfortable but necessary step, in order to build relations with the transitional government and avoid being outmanuvered by Turkey. For now, they seem similar of nature to the negotiations with the Assad regime that were held in the past. SDF never reached any agreement with the regime that wouldnt compromise their integrity and values, and the same is true for the new negotiations with HTS. Negotiations of this kind are diplomatic games, a projection of power of the different actors. If the balance of power changes, negotiations can be pushed in a new direction, with the stronger imposing their will and the other having to accept a compromise. Therefore the most plausible scenario is that those negotiations will get stalled, waiting to solve the differences on the battle field.

Revolutionary greetings!