01-02/Jan/2025
“I am here because my conscience could not accept what I saw with my own eyes. When you choose the path, you have to walk it at your own risk. The way is us, and we are the way.” — Cîhan Bilgin
# NES
Clashes in Manbij countryside
Heavy clashes in Manbij countryside continued with intense air support from Turkish army. SDF is holding ground against SNA offensives, destroying some armored vehicles and inflicting heavy loses on SNA troops. SDF shot down a turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone. YPJ destroyed a communication tower.
Damages to Tishreen Dam
Turkish and SNA attacks have left the Tishreen Dam inoperable, with latest figures estimating that at least 413,000 people in Manbij and Kobane area have been deprived of electricity and water for the past 3 weeks. Strikes on the dam have damaged turbines, cut essential cables, caused leakages & resulted in power outages.
Turkish drone strikes
Among other attacks, turkish drones targeted civilian homes in Gire Spi country side. A turkish drone strike in the kurdish controlled area of Aleppo destroyed the only sugar factory in the region.
New US base in Kobane
The US army is building a new base in the city of Kobane. Cement blocks, premade rooms, surveillance cameras and other equipement is being installed.
# Syria
SDF meetings with HTS
Official delegation of SDF command met with HTS command to discuss about the relation of SDF with the new Syrian army being formed. Mazlum Abdi stated that an agreement was not reached but that the negotiations are ongoing. Ahmed al-Sharaa declared “SDF requested to be integrated as an specific corps within the new army, also to determine a percentage of the resources it controls, especially oil, to remain in NE Syria. These demands were rejected by the General Command, but there is a proposal being studied to include elements of the SDF”.
HTS delegation to Saudi Arabia
A Syrian official delegation to Saudi Arabia, led by freshly appointed Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaybani, Defense minister Murhaf Abu Qasra and Intelligence chief Anas Khattab, landed in Riyadh, marking their first official trip abroad.
‘Joint forces’ leave SNA
The “Joint Forces”, a coalition of the two main facitons of SNA ‘Hamza division’ and ‘Sultan Suleyman Sha division’, announced their withdrawal from the SNA to join the new Syrian Army under the new ‘defense ministry’.
Druze demand federalism
The Druze in Suwayda have intercepted an HTS convoy from entering Suwayda, and they were forced to return to Damascus.
Commander of Druze operations: “We will not allow any faction, regardless of the number of its members, to enter Suwaida, and we will demand federalism if we are subjected to any aggression or anything is imposed on us”
New insurgent group?
Statements about a new group calling itself “Syrian Popular Resistance” appeared in Iran and Russian linked media. They vow they will fight HTS in retaliation for the attacks on minorities, calling for a “free Syrian Arab republic” with a sectarian religious language.
# Foreign Policy
Meeting between DEM and MHP
The meeting between the (kurdish) DEM Party’s İmralı delegation and MHP leader (far-right) Devlet Bahçeli took place in Turkey. The meeting followed Abdullah Öcalan’s recommendation for dialogue with political parties. DEM party said that the meeting went well.
Iraq forbids kurdish Organisations
With the start of the new year, Iraq issued a new law forbidding “all organisations connected to the PKK” due to a request by Turkey.
This affects among others Free Women Associtation RJAK, Niwêger and Merziye foundations for arts together with the production company of Jin TV. All assets of these organisations have been seized.
US-Syria economic license
Work is underway in US institutions to issue a “temporary” license valid for one year, allowing economic transactions that were previously prohibited under U.S. sanctions on Syria, while sanctions will not be lifted.
ISIS calls for attacks
ISIS made a call to its members to carry out attacks in Europe, the US and Israel, calling for action during New Year celebrations. “Prepare your belts, silencers, knives, and explosives” one message exhorts.
*** Analysis ***
We start 2025 with many things going on. January will be a challenging month, with a race of different actors to strengthen their positions, both in the military field as well as in diplomatic influence. Al-Sharaa is putting his HTS trusted circles in key positions in the goverment. You can read some of their (newly collected) biographies on wikipedia, partly documenting their past activities as “brave jihadist fighters” of al-Nusra. How much they are just playing a theater for western audiences, or how much they really moderated themselves in exchange for power in a Nation-State, is something that will be more clear in the next months.
The statements of an insurgent “popular resistance movement”, with a certain iranian flavour and with russian fringe media echoing it, can contribute to new waves of instability if they come backed up with actions. The druze community in the south also seems unwilling to cooperate with HTS transitional government, contributing to a mosaic of actors that question HTS’ proclaimed power. Meanwhile, many people in Syria’s western cities are going out to the streets, fixing roads and painting murals, reinforcing bonds of solidarity and mutual aid among neighbors. This networks of civic organizing can easily flourish in local committees and popular councils, as they already did in the early years of the Syrian revolution. How much HTS government will give space to these local initiatives, and how much these grassroots movements will confront the authoritarian steps of HTS, is something that will be a determinant for the future of Syria.
The press statement of the ‘joint forces’ leaving the SNA coalition is an important step, moving towards a generalized meltdown of the Turkish proxy forces. It is not clear how much it is an open defection or maybe a ‘cover’ operation of Turkish intelligence, aiming to ‘infiltrate’ some of their trusted agents in the new Syrian Army. Still, together with many local reports of groups and fighters defecting to go back home, plus the big amount of losses that the resistance of SDF is inflicting against their attacks, all this is making SNA more an more unable to hold their ground. How much Turkey will try to keep SNA together or will try to invade directly if things don’t play as they want remains still to be seen.
On the other side, the ongoing talks to integrate SDF in that same new Syrian Army are an uncomfortable but necessary step, in order to build relations with the transitional government and avoid being outmanuvered by Turkey. For now, they seem similar of nature to the negotiations with the Assad regime that were held in the past. SDF never reached any agreement with the regime that wouldnt compromise their integrity and values, and the same is true for the new negotiations with HTS. Negotiations of this kind are diplomatic games, a projection of power of the different actors. If the balance of power changes, negotiations can be pushed in a new direction, with the stronger imposing their will and the other having to accept a compromise. Therefore the most plausible scenario is that those negotiations will get stalled, waiting to solve the differences on the battle field.
Revolutionary greetings!