24.02.25 – 09.03.25
Uprisings in coastal areas
In the last days, a new wave of insurgent attacks against the military forces of HTS spread around Latakia, near the strongholds of the ousted Assad regime. The situation spiraled out of control, with protests and massacres taking place. The new Syrian army is undertaking the biggest security operation of their short history, with newly created units deployed to secure the area. Insurgent cells set up ambushes and small attacks on several checkpoints, and Alawites are organizing protests to denounce the brutalities they suffer. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is reporting over a 1000 killed in the ongoing clashes. Some Islamist groups linked to the SNA, not yet integrated in the new Syrian Army, are also deploying in the region. Videos of massacres against Alawite population are spreading in social media while many actors, from the DAANES to the UN, call for an end of hostilities. The transitional government forces are now in control of the main populated regions of Latakia, but in rural areas insurgency attacks and security operations continue. Senior officers of the ousted regime are being captured, others are leading insurgent groups and calling for negotiations with the government. The group called “Syrian popular resistance” claimed some of the attacks against government forces, but even if several attacks are coordinated at the same time it seems unlikely that there is any unified insurgent organization. Transitional government forces also deployed alongside Lebanon border to prevent Hezbollah to support the insurgency, despite Hezbollah stating they have nothing to do with it. A brutal response from security forces, targeting not just the insurgent groups but the Alawite population in general, will probably spark more resentment fueling further escalation.
No government transition after the “National dialog conference”
On February 24th a 2-day conference was held in the presidential palace of Damascus, with more than 500 people invited to attend. Nevertheless, the invitations were sent less than 48 before the event, making any meaningful participation quite difficult. The invited delegates were mostly figures close to HTS and there was an absence of representation from women, minorities and other political forces. At the end of the conference a final statement was shared, echoing the already announced goals of the transitional government. The conference became a process to legitimize a constitutional committee that will write a provisional constitution for Syria that will need to be approved by the provisional president of Syria Ahmed al-Sharaa. An interim legislative council will assume temporary legislative duties until elections will be held for a permanent legislature. Al-Sharaa implied that the interim government would be responsible to appoint the members of these two bodies.
Alternative national dialog conference in Raqqa
Political entities of Northeast Syria not invited to the “National dialog conference”, organized an alternative conference in Raqqa. More than 300 representatives of ethnic minorities and political forces not invited to the conference in Damascus joined this alternative conference, calling for a decentralized and democratic Syria. The conference’s final statement calls to apply the system of democratic autonomy of northeastern Syria as a model to build a pluralistic and democratic country.
Statement of Ocalan
At the end of February the delegation that visited Abdullah Ocalan shared a statement calling for a peace process in Turkey. The statement called the PKK to lay down weapons and organize a congress to dissolve the Party. The next day PKK central committee shared a statement welcoming the call of Ocalan and declaring a unilateral ceasefire, urging the Turkish state to initiate a process of democratization needed for peace negotiations to happen. They also called for the liberation of Ocalan, pointing out that only he can lead a congress where PKK can take such important decisions as laying down weapons and dissolving itself, putting the ball in Turkey’s court. The AKP government announced that it will not negotiate with PKK.
Reaction of SDF and PYD to Ocalan’s announcement
Mazlum Abdi welcomed the message of Abdullah Ocalan and stated that the call for PKK to disarm doesn’t apply to SDF, and that it will continue its work to defend the people of northeastern Syria against the military threats of Turkish forces. The spokesperson of PYD announced that “if the reasons for carrying weapons disappear, we will lay them down,” implying that the SDF will not disarm until Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) cease attacks on the SDF in northeastern Syria.
Southern Syria and the Druze question
The situation in southern Syria was going on a path to normalization with the transitional government forces. “Men of dignity”, the main Druze armed faction, together with other smaller groups, reached an agreement to establish Suwaydawi-led security forces under interim Syrian government control in Suwayda Province. The Druze militias and interim government agreed that local leaders and residents from Suwayda would comprise the province’s security units, although it is unclear if Suwaydawis will have a majority presence in the units or if the units will only be comprised of Suwaydawis. With this agreement HTS forces were allowed to deploy in the region that before they were not allowed to access. This came with the ongoing escalation of Israel aggression in the region, that has been using the protection of the Druze community as an excuse to legitimize their deployment and extension of the “security zone”, building new military bases beyond their already occupied areas. IDF also conducted new ground operations to destroy military targets in further regions of southern Syria.
Evaluation
First of all, we want to share a self-criticism for not sharing our weekly update last week. We included some relevant events from past week in the present update. A combination of technical difficulties, shortcomings in coordination and other relevant works prevented us from curating a coherent update to share last week. We consider this task an important work to do. We value the trust you give us by following our channels, and we want to keep up with the commitments we agreed. Nevertheless, we are not professional journalists or analysts, and have limited capacities and resources. We are revolutionary anarchist militants keeping up with the duties we committed to: support, defend and expand the revolutionary developments achieved in northeastern Syria.
About the situation on the ground, as the recent escalation in Latakia region unfolds, the military forces of the transitional government are reacting as everyone expected them to do. The Salafist elements of HTS together with other Islamist militias of SNA are massacring Alawite people and inciting ethnic hate and revenge. Al-Sharaa’s measured declarations to simulate control of the situation are just a performance. Nevertheless, his recent statements about conspiracies and plans to sow discord and instability in Syria, may have some foundations besides just diverting public attention. Russian elements have been negotiating with the transitional government, but they probably kept connections with what remains of the military of the ousted regime. The scale and coordination of the attacks may suggest some external support for the insurgents. The fast reaction of Russian army providing aid and humanitarian support to displaced Alawites is an indicator that they have clear interest to keep presence in the region, working to gain support from the local population. How much are they offering a solution to the problem they themselves created is a matter of speculation for now.
In any case, this escalation of tensions can lead to clashes even in other regions. Different forces in opposition the new government might find an opportunity to challenge their rule, pushing back to gain better positions in these moments of chaos. Also other Islamist groups may use this situation to incite hate and push for further escalation to advance their agendas. As we write these lines, we are following reports on attacks being repelled by security forces in Sheikh Maqsoud, the Kurdish neighborhood in the city of Aleppo.
In the geopolitical board, the “power vacuum” of Syria is clearly unleashing waves that will influence the region for decades to come. Turkey in the north and Israel in the south are trying to use this situation to expand their influence, entering in a race for hegemony in Middle east that is now being played in Syria. This creates and interesting contradiction for US, since Turkey being a NATO member will oblige them to defend Turkish forces in case of conflict with Israel. But we all know that in such a conflict US will align with Israel and not with Turkey, questioning the value of the whole NATO alliance. Such a situation still far away from taking place, but it is probably what Russia would like to see, and their presence in Syria is not over yet. How all those things will play out, especially now with a narcissitic clown in the White house, is still unknown.
But going back to the ground level, while those terrible massacres are happening on the Syrian coast and another escalation of Syrian civil war is looming over us, the celebrations of 8 of March brought the women of northeastern Syria out to the streets from Heseke to Raqqa, From Qamishlo to Deir Ezzor. Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) held a military ceremony and reaffirmed its resolve to build democratic Syria with the commitment to the principle of “Woman, Life, Freedom”. Women, the leading force behind revolution of northeastern Syria, are and will be in the forefront of unfolding events in Syria and elsewhere – including the resistance of Tishreen dam which, as we speak, holds strong and doesn’t let Turkish army and their proxies pass to the other shore of the Euphrates.
Revolutionary greetings!