Updates 09-12-2024
#Aftermath of the regime collapse
– The provinces of Latakia and Tartus are now also in full control of opposition forces, no regime loyalist area remains.
– Syrians in Libanon are going to the border crossing hoping to go back to their homes. Syrians in Turkey also going in mass, turkish state opening also the Yayladagi border crossing in Hatay.
– The Syrian opposition assigns Mohamed Al-Bashir, the Prime Minister of the Syria Salvation Government (SSG) [HTS political front], to form a transitional government. All position of this transition government are occupied by SSG members, apparently excluding the Syrian Interim Government (SIG)[SNA political front, Turkish aligned]. This might bring new contradictions between HTS and SNA/Turkey.
# Israel attacks
– Israel continues the bombing of strategical targets like armories, air defense systems and chemical factories of SAA in Homs, Hama, Tartus, Latakia and specially Damascus. They anounced on army radio more than 200 targets hits in Syria.
– There are several dead reported from some of those airstrikes, specially in southern Syria. Allegedly several members of the Makhlouf family (family of Hafez al-Assad wife, who are very very rich) were killed in airstrikes, also a local sheik of Sweida.
– IDF also started a ground offensive advancing from the Golan hights, allegedly to establish a “security corridor” or buffer zone, parachuting troops beyond the already occupied area.
# NES (Rojava and beyond)
– The fight in Manbij continued with heavy clashes during the night, with SDF recovering several positions after ambushing and pushing away SNA pockets. SDF and MMC anounced 4 shehids that had been buried today. Videos on social networks show dozens of bodies of SNA fighters spread on Manbij streets.
– Turkish drone strike the village on al-Mistriah, west of Ayn Issa, killing 15 civilians including 6 children, another one hit the area of Zirgan, in Til Temir / Dirbesiye front lines. Drone strikes had been ongoing in different regions under control of SDF, mostly against military targets.
– Together with drone strikes and artillery fire, SNA is also making some moves from the occupied region of Serekaniye-Gires Spi. They made an offensive on Sewami, 25 km west of Til Temir, that was repealed by SDF. An ANKA drone was shot down by SDF in Til Temir area.
– Unrest in Deir Ezzor citty, with protests and looting in some areas. Turkish aligned media spreads videos of protests calling for withdraw of SDF and demands for FSA to come. SDF aligned media shared interviews with tribal leaders calling for peace and standing with SDF.
– Recently “abandoned” positions of SAA in Qamsishlo and Haseke had also been heavily bombed by Israel, including the Qamishlo airport and other air defense systems locations. At least on person was injured in the airstrikes.
# Analysis
There are too many things ongoing in Syria, the developments are extraordinarily fast – and probably confusing for those not familiar with the situation. Every part of the conflict is racing to position themselves and get advantage from the political transition that will follow in Syria.
Regarding the situation in NES, the resistance in Manbij is critical. A collapse of the SDF in Manbij would had been follow by further attack of SNA, but the military proficiency displayed has been the best deterrence for further movements of SNA. It showed that SDF is not the SAA, and that blietzkrieg tactics of russhing with armored vehicles under artillery fire cover can send regime soldiers running away, but SDF is ready to hold positions and fight back.
For Turkey, Manbij is also very important, and it will be a decisive battle for the future of the SDF and the DAANES. This battle is proving that a well trained and prepared force, even if lightly equipped, can inflict massive losses to a much more numerous and well equipped force, even when they have total air supremacy. Every day that SDF holds any ground in Manbij is one more day that Turkey is being defeated, making SNA looking weaker. HTS took several big cities in days, SNA can’t take one middle sized city even when having full support of turkish airforce. But of course, as we said at the beginning, SDF is not SAA.
The attacks of Israel can also open new cans of worms, igniting old hates and legitimizing more extreme and fundamentalist positions inside HTS, overwhelming the moderate face that they had been working to present.
Many more things could be say, but this is already getting long so we stop here for today.
Revolutionary greetings!