18.08.25 – 24.08.25
Syrian Ministry of Defense declares preparing an offensive
Syrian security forces reported on August 16 that the Syrian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is planning an offensive to capture Raqqa and Deir ez Zor provinces. According to the declaration, the MoD has mobilized 50,000 troops near Palmyra, Homs Province, and is seeking assistance from local Arab tribes if the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) does not comply by October 2025. Similar recent reports from Turkish media indicate that Turkey and the Syrian transitional government are gearing up for an offensive in North-Eastern Syria. On August 14, Turkish sources claimed that a joint military operation is imminent.
It is unlikely that the Syrian transitional government is preparing for such offensive. Smaller movements of troops are most of the time reported by medias and social networks, and non of them confirms the allegation of the Syrian Security Forces. These reports aim at pressuring the SDF to integrate into the Syrian state and surrender its territory.
ISIS
In recent weeks, ISIS has significantly increased its attacks in regions controlled by the Syrian Transitional Government and the SDF, primarily targeting checkpoints. New tactics have also been observed: on the 22nd, two ISIS suicide bombers on a motorcycle launched an attack on a Government Security Service (GSS) checkpoint. The attackers intended for the first bomber to breach the checkpoint, allowing the second bomber to enter and detonate his vest among the remaining forces. One of the attackers was killed before he could detonate his explosive vest, preventing the planned attack from succeeding. Additionaly, on friday, Asayish also thwarted an escape attempt from a prison in Hasakah. The resurgence of terrorist islamist groups comes as a direct consequence of the instability resulting of the accession of the Transitional Government to power and of its politics targetting ethnic minorities.
Facing this resurgence, the transitional government, the SDF and the US army are multiplying the operations against ISIS. The last one took place in Idlib, on August 20th: the US army conducted an operation targeting Salah Noman, an ISIS leader allegidly responsible for activating ISIS cells in Syria.
Growing autonomous Druze militia in Suweida
The region of Suweida continues to experience tensions stemming from the massacres targeting the Druze community that occurred a month ago. In recent weeks, transitional government forces have repeatedly violated the ceasefire by attacking and bombing several Suweida villages.
In response to the government’s actions, around 30 Druze factions have merged to form the “National Guard Forces,” operating under the leadership of the Sheikh Hikhmat al Hijri. While more militias are joining his unified army, Hijri faces criticism from other groups within the Druze community, such as the “Dignity Men Movement,” which has stated that “Al-Hijri’s message carries destruction and devastation.” Hijri is a strong opponent of Al-Sharaa. At the beginning of the month, his political movement declared an autonomous Suweidawi government.
The formal establishment of this alliance among anti-government Druze militias, referred to as a “unified army,” poses a significant challenge to the Syrian government’s intentions to gradually incorporate Suweida into state institutions.
Syria – Israel
In the last week, Damascus and Til Aviv have been multiplying meetings:
On August 19, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al Shaibani, Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, and US Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack met in Paris to discuss security arrangements for the Israel-Syria border. One of the topic discussed was an Israeli proposal to establish a humanitarian aid corridor from the Israeli border to Suweida City.
Additionally, on September 25, the Syrian and Israeli governments are set to sign a security agreement intended to ease longstanding tensions between the two nations. While this agreement will not be a peace treaty, it will focus on specific security arrangements, particularly in southern Syria.
Despite US efforts to foster dialogue and cooperation, relations between Israel and Syria remain tense. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are stationed in the Syrian part of the Golan Heights and conducted several operations last week targeting various villages in the western countryside of Quneitra.